More photos » Susan Walsh - AP

about 1 year ago: FILE -- This is a May 1, 2009, file photo showing Mountain West Conference Commissioner Craig Thompson testifying before the House Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection Subcommittee hearing on the football Bowl Championship Series on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

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The BCS will use the membership on December 4th, 2011 to determine where each team counts in the next evaluation. Fresno State, Nevada and Colorado are not cleared yet to move by then.

They also don't do anything to the numbers other than a little changing of the last few digits listed. The numbers involving Boise State, Nebraska and Utah moving have already been run. This included the impact on the PAC 10 and Big 12 in the unlikely event Colorado moves in 2011 instead of 2012. How much does BYU leaving impact the MWC's bid for an automatic qualification for 2012 and 2013?

I do know this much. If Hawaii goes independent or LA Tech moves to the geographically closer Sun Belt (HQ in New Orleans) the WAC would no longer qualify for an exemption to the 8 team rule to be an FBS conference.

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More photos » Nick Wass - AP

10 months ago: A member of the FedEx Field grounds crew stands on the tarp that protects the turf during light rain before the NFL football game between The Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009 in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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[Some say the BCS makes every week a playoff. This series will take a look at which five games really count each week. This will be a weekly feature on Wednesday nights through out the season. All rankings listed here are based on the simulated BCS standings, until the actual standings are released.]

#5 Boise St. Broncos vs. #7 Virginia Tech Hokies (@ Fed Ex Field)

Need tickets?

Without a doubt this is the most anticipated game of the opening weekend, after each fan's own team's game. This is the only game between two top ten teams in the opening week.

The winner has a strong shot at the NCG, while the loser is likely out of it. A BCS bowl will remain in reach for either team regardless of the outcome of this game.

Boise State is looking to continue a FBS tying 14 game winning streak into another 10+ win season for tenth time in 12 years. Virginia Tech is looking to continue the momentum from last year's Orange Bowl win into an ACC schedule where they have an opportunity to establish themselves as the clear king of the hill.

Boise State has more on the line, as they don't have any real changes left after week one. Virginia Tech still has the ACC schedule, including a very possible ACC championship game, to climb back up if they fall early. Boise State will also have a much longer trip to this allegedly neutral site game.

The ACC lit up the scoreboard in 2009 and Boise State is still remembered as the pass happy team from 2006. Boise State has grown a defense that did more to get a 14-0 record last year than their offense. Virginia Tech was the lone ACC team that could say their defense was not horrible last year.

Often defensive battle are described as sloppy by the casual fan. I expect this to be one of those games where people watching leave wondering how good these teams were, based on what is on the field, only to have the following weeks confirm that it was both teams making the other team look bad.

Now, on to the next game...

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Today we take our first look at the BCS standings, based on the data available. The only component that will become available between now and the start of the season is the Sagarin ranking. The simulation will be updated at that time.

The AP poll is used until the Harris Poll is released, despite a better poll being available. The Blog Poll will not be available until Wednesdays through the season and the simulations will be run before then. The actual BCS standings will be used once they are available and the analysis will be moved to Sundays at that time.

The simulation drops the four unavailable computers (and Wes Colley whose first two weeks are trivial) and adds the mean and median from the Massey Ranking Comparison, as of 32 rankings. Massey MOV is used for the first two weeks. When Sagarin becomes available it will be added and half of the highest and lowest of among five will be dropped.

Additionally, an estimate of precision is given for each team.

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If you don't like math, do your self a favor and stop reading this post :)

[Edited on 8/18 to clarify the difference between precision and accuracy]

To be fair this post is mostly about precision and not accuracy. Accuracy would explore whether coaches opinions and computers without margin of victory are a better measure of who the top two teams are than bloggers or computers allowed to use whatever methods prove to work.

This argument is highly subjective and a lack of consensus exists as to what is better. A far more pressing issue is the BCS' listing of their standings to four digits. Without error bars, this imparts that the rankings are this precise at measuring teams. The thesis here is that the BCS formula is not even this precise at measuring the opinions of teams from a normally distributed population of ideal voters.

One of my personal issues with rankings is very few attempt to measure the uncertainty of the method. The BlogPoll Top 25 and Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison both provide variance measures that are about as close as anyone has to the method.

Each week this season, starting with a preseason emulation after the AP poll and Sagarin rankings are made available, I will be posting a break down of the BCS Standings with an estimate of the uncertainty. This post is intended to be a reference to link to in those posts explaining how those numbers are generated.

The short story is that it is 0.0058 times the standard deviation indicated by these other indicators is a reasonable estimate of the precision of the BCS standings.

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Media days last week, practices started yesterday for the Thursday opening games and now the next sign of football being around the corner has emerged.

The 2010 preseason Coaches poll is now up.

Others Receiving Votes: Cincinnati 135, Houston 76, BYU, 66, Arizona 65, Mississippi 48, Clemson 44, Stanford 41, Connecticut 40, Notre Dame 38, South Carolina 38, Washington 26, Missouri 23, Navy 12, Oklahoma State 11, Boston College 10, Michigan State 10, Arizona State 6, California 6, Texas Tech 5, South Florida 4, Texas A&M 3, Northwestern 2, Temple 2, Central Michigan 1, Mississippi St. 1, Nevada 1, Northern Illinois 1, SMU 1.

But everyone is reporting that. My notes next.

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Grant Teaff, the Executive Director of the American Football Coaches Association that runs the USA Today Coaches Poll, announced that the USC Trojans will be omitted from the 2010 Coaches Poll ballot.

The coaches poll voters are not allowed to vote for teams under major NCAA sanctions and by accepting a postseason ban for the 2010 season USC has become ineligible for the 2010 Coaches Poll. The NCAA has sentenced USC to a two year ban, but USC is appealing that ruling. The verdict on that appeal will determine if USC is eligible for the postseason, and Coaches Poll consideration, in 2011.

The Coaches Poll is used by the BCS formula. What effect will omitting USC have on the BCS formula?

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The anti-BCS lawyers at Ardent Fox recently published this chart on the BCS revenue comparing the MWC/WAC to the ACC and the Big East.

These numbers show the MWC/WAC champions selected for BCS bowls generate games with larger TV ratings, bring more fans to the BCS bowls and qualify teams with a ranking equal to or greater than either the Big East or the ACC.

Yet the MWC and WAC combined earn receive less revenue than either the ACC or Big East makes alone.

Here is another number: BCS bowl results 2007-2010 (after 2006-2009 seasons)

MWC/WAC: 3-2
ACC: 1-3
Big East: 2-2

Note that the ACC played the Big East twice and the MWC played the WAC once. Removing those games we get:

MWC/WAC: 2-1
ACC: 0-2
Big East: 1-1

So the MWC/WAC leader is higher ranked, draws more fans to the games, generates higher rated games, performs better on the big stage and receives about half the money on average.

I'd say that's BCS fair.

These are pretty damaging numbers. I stand by my claim that this is more of a reflection of the Big East and ACC being over valued than the MWC and WAC being undervalued. The SEC is undervalued.

A table of the annual results of the adjusted top 25 performance ranking, as defined by the BCS, is provided after the jump. An average over the past four years and the years of the next evaluation period are included.

Most conferences have gained in this metric, corresponding more to a falling of the SEC. The SEC's 100% is not as good as it once was by about 10%. The MWC vastly outpaced this effect and would become the leader with the addition of Boise State.

This ranking is compelling because it is not factored in the same manner as the first two. Rather than having to be in the top 6 a conference must be within 50% of the leader to guarantee meeting this criteria. The #7 conference exemptions become top 33% exemptions.

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