The BCS has published their BCS revenue sharing for this year. The most interesting part of this is how the at large conferences divvied up the $24 million guaranteed them in the contracts. (Independents are published elsewhere)

Here is the run down:

• $22.2 Million each for Automatic Qualifying conferences with 2 teams: Big 10 and SEC
  
• $17.7 Million Each for Automatic Qualifying conferences with 1 team: ACC, Bis 12, Big East, PAC 10
• MWC: $9.8 Million
• WAC: $7.8 Million
• C-USA: $2.8 Million
• MAC: $2.1 Million
• FCS Leagues: $1.8 Million
• Sun Belt: $1.5 Million
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish: $1.3 Million
• Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen: $0.1 Million

I will present my ideas for BCS/tournament revenue sharing after the jump, but first I will give you the biggest unfairness in the BCS revenue sharing plan.

The SEC qualified two teams for BCS bowls, both of whom won their bowl game. The Alabama Crimson Tide claimed the national championship while the SEC runner up Florida Gators obliterated the previously undefeated Big East Champion Cincinnati Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl.

The SEC received $1.8 Million per team while the Big East received $2.2 million per team.

The BCS revenue system is sick and wrong.

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When I first sketched the idea of this thread the idea was to promote the idea of boycotting the Orange Bowl to make the Fiesta Bowl the more popular bowl in the TV ratings.  If a significant number of fans watch all the bowls games except one that would get noticed in the rankings.

Then I came to realize that the Fiesta Bowl just needs to be acknowledged as the better and more marketable game on its own right.  I still plan on watching "The Blindside" instead of the Orange Bowl.

If the Fiesta Bowl can out Nelson the Orange Bowl this will mark a turning point when the at large conferences (or at least the MWC and Boise State) demonstrate their marketability to the national audience.  This could lead to large scale perception changes among the people who really matter.

And if you really hate the BCS but find the idea of protesting all of their games ridiculous, I ask you to consider just giving up this one Orange Bowl.

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Did I really forget to post these on Sunday?  Shame on me!

Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
5: PAC 10
4: Big 10
3: SEC, Big 12, MWC, Big East, ACC
1: WAC
0: C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt

My thoughts on the BCS pairings after the jump.

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Ok.  TCU did not bust into the National Championship Game.  We do have two teams from at large conferences in BCS bowls for the first time in the history of college football.  This certainly cut down one of the most glaring glass ceilings in the BCS design.

But this is not one of the true BCS busting scenarios, as I discussed previously.

No, the real threat is a split title, 2003 USC style.

An outline for how this might be able to happen next ...

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The BCS uses three criteria averaged over a four year window to evaluate future BCS automatic qualifications.

(1) the ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings each year
(2) the final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year
(3) the number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings each year.

MWC Connection recently asked some interesting questions clarifying these procedures.  Bill Hancock point blank answered that statistics for conference members in 2011 over the 2008-2011 window will be used.  This means that if Boise State joins the MWC in 2011 their numbers from 2008-2010 will count for the MWC to evaluate their automatic qualification status for 2012 and 2013.

Estimates of these numbers over 2006-2009 are hosted at BCS Guru's site.  These have been updated to include all 2009 data.  They are broken down by criteria and for each year to see how and when each conference earned their marks.

None of these three criteria depend on the bowls in any manner whatsoever.  Perhaps this is a subtle way for the BCS to communicate that the bowls are essentially meaningless.

If I were to attempt to design a system to undermine the bowls and raise a public outcry to implement a playoff I think it would be hard to achieve the success the BCS has attained.

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I will be giving detailed preview for each BCS bowl once every five days.  This is simply my initial reaction to the 2009 BCS selections.

Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The much anticipated SEC vs. Big 12 undefeated showdown will become a reality.  With the final weeks and growing gap between #1 and #2 this week in the standings the question will be whether this year will be a repeat of 2001 when runaway leader Miami(FL) ran away from every other team or 2006 when Ohio State appeared to be head and shoulders above the crowd only to fall to to Florida in the National Championship Game.

Boise St. Broncos vs. TCU Horned Frogs

For the first time in BCS history two teams from at large conferences will participate in a BCS bowl in the same year.  Pairing these teams against each other will raise questions about whether this was a ploy to produce an easily dismissible game.

Some will say that one benefit of a BCS bowl for at large teams is the ability to face off against one of the top teams from one of the top conferences to prove their worth to the nation.

I would argue that TCU and Boise State have already proven to the nation that they each are comparable to any other team they could have played and they each have an opportunity to play one of the top of the class teams from 2009.

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Ok.  Since the BCS standigns themselves are inconsequential, my obsessive need to crunch numbers must be satiated.  I will now go through the selection process and break down the permutations and possibilities to scenarios  with at least a 5% chance of happening at each selection step.

We will know by 9:00 ET tonight what the final selections are.

What we know:

1) Alabama and Texas will be placed in the NCG.  To an error less than 1% this is known.

2) Oregon and Ohio State will play in the Rose Bowl

3) Georgia Tech will be in the Orange Bowl

4) Cincinnati and TCU will be guaranteed a spot, TCU to an error less than 1%.

5) Florida, Boise State, one of Iowa or Penn State, Virginia Tech and BYU will be BCS eligible, to an error less than 1%.

Selection order:

1) Sugar Bowl reclacement for Alabama: Florida to less than 1%

2) Fiesta Bowl replacement for Texas

3) Orange Bowl at large

4) Fiesta Bowl at large

5) Sugar Bowl at large

Updated BCS Projection:

NCG: Alabama vs. Texas

Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio St.

Orange: Fiesta: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa/Penn St.

Fiesta: TCU vs. Cincinnati

Sugar: Florida vs. Virginia Tech/Boise St.

Now for the goods on how I got that and how certain I am of this:

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Alabama and Texas will be #1 and #2.

The order of #3 and #4 will not matter.  TCU and Cincinnati will both have an automatic qualification.

The final undefeated team, Boise State, is left hoping they are selected as an at large team.

Florida might be ranked ahead of Boise State this week but it does not matter.  They will be in the Sugar Bowl.

Georgia Tech will go to the Orange Bowl.

Oregon will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

Iowa or Penn State will get an at large bid as a second Big 10 team.  They could go to the Orange Bowl but most likely they will play in the Fiesta Bowl.

LSU will be in the top 14 but not eligible as a third SEC team.

Virginia Tech and BYU will be the only other eligible teams, with a large gap between #14 and #15.

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