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37 Teams 'til Kickoff: Auburn

[Editor's note: This series presents teams in order of the value each team would add to a conference hypothetical near the boarder of the criteria used by the BCS to determine future automatic qualifications. It is not a predictive measure of the 2010 season.]

Today's look at the Auburn Tigers is provided by Acid Reign, of TrackEmTigers.com.

What is going right this off season in for the 2010 Auburn Tigers football team?

Quite a bit. First, Coach Gene Chizik signed a top 5 recruiting class. Then, 30 out of 32 of the newcomers have qualified, and are on campus. That's a rarity in this day and age. There's typically around five players in most classes that don't qualify. Auburn has a veteran group of good starters, but little depth. This class will really help fill out the roster! Then, there have been few injuries so far. We're still not clear on our situation at safety, but those are lingering health issues from 2009 and earlier. There have been no serious injuries to front line players thus far.

What is going wrong this offseason?

Honestly, very little. We're waiting for the other shoe to drop! I suppose the biggest thing was running back Dontae Aycock leaving over an undisclosed disciplinary matter. Aycock was running at 3rd team tailback, and there's no scholarship replacement till signee Michael Dyer arrives in August. We may have depth issues at running back this fall. Starter Mario Fannin has had shoulder issues in the past, and backup Onterrio McCalebb had a bum ankle last season. The backfield needs to stay healthy.

Based on performance over the past three years, do you feel a ranking of 37 is justified? How about being in a 7 way tie for the 24th hardest schedule?

After the ending to the 1983 season, when we were passed over for Miami by AP voters, I haven't worried much about the polls. Miami played two bowl opponents in the regular season and one of those was Florida, who they lost to. Auburn beat nine bowl teams. And yet Miami was jumped over Auburn from fifth to first after beating Nebraska (another team that didn't play many bowl teams). As to this year's ranking, the cold hard fact is that we've gone 5-11 in the SEC over the past two seasons. I'm optimistic about this season, but you can't expect national pollsters to see much beyond your recent record. Regarding this year's schedule, we play in the SEC West. It's one of the toughest divisions in football. The West went 4-1 in bowl games, including winning the BCS title game. The one team that didn't go bowling was Mississippi State, who was certainly good enough to win a bowl game! If we want to move up in schedule difficulty, we'll have to stop scheduling Arky State, Tenn-Chattanooga and the like.

What do you expect from the Tigers in 2010?

All Tiger fans really ever expect from their team is to strap it up and play hard. I feel like there were three games last season where that didn't always happen. We didn't wake up for an early game against Arkansas, and blew off the first half resulting in a 27-3 deficit. Then there was a roll-over-and-die effort in the 4th quarter of the Kentucky game. Finally, we didn't compete at all against LSU. Those kinds of games are what gets coaches on the hot seat at Auburn. There's no set number of games Gene Chizik needs to win in 2010, but similar performances could get him in trouble with the Auburn fan base. As to wins, I think it's realistic for Auburn to go 9-3 this year. We've got five teams on the schedule that meet or exceed Auburn's talent level: Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and Alabama. There are also lower to mid-level SEC teams capable of pulling the upset. I figure Auburn finds a way to win two or three of the tough five. A 10-2 record could get Auburn to Atlanta, if Alabama takes a step backwards.

Am I the only one who still thinks the 2004 Auburn Tigers are one of the best arguments against the BCS?

What happened to Auburn in 2004 was unfortunate, but if not the BCS, then what? A playoff would be great, but the powers that be don't seem to be ready to let that happen yet. Going back to the bowl affiliations of the 1970s and 1980s would not be as good as the BCS. Auburn's 1983 snub was directly a result of the three best teams in the nation (Auburn, Texas, Nebraska) not being allowed to play one another, due to bowl tie-ins. I'm probably of a minority opinion among Auburn fans, but I don't really hold anything against the poll voters in 2004. It was a popularity contest between five undefeated teams. Auburn had a great chance after we bombed a good Georgia team 24-6. For what followed, we can really only blame ourselves. We piddled around for a half against a 6-6 Bama team down to their 3rd-team QB, and only won by 8. In the SEC Title game, we were again facing a Tennessee team with their 3rd-team QB. We kept letting them stay in an obviously lopsided affair, and only won by ten points. Meanwhile, Oklahoma was nuking Colorado 44-0 in the Big 12 Title game. We made our own bed on that one, I think.

Hmph. Fine. Don't play nice.

Thank you, Acid Reign, for your insight on the Auburn Tigers. Mr. Reign has indicated that his views might not be representative of most Auburn fans on some answers above. For a more holistic view of how Auburn fans are looking at the 2010 season please visit TrackEmTigers.com.

Star-divide

Head Coach: Gene Chizik (Second Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Gus Malzahn (Second Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Ted Roof (First Second, Second year at Auburn)

Usually one more rebuilding year is normally in order, but this is the SEC where Meyer and Saban set an entirely new tempo.

BCS numbers:

 

2007
(9-4)

2008
(5-7)

2009
(8-5)

Average
(0.5789)

Computer Average

22.83

69.50

31.17

41.17

Top 25

1.00

0.00

0.00

0.33

Score

11.83

69.50

31.17

37.50

Not much here to comment on, really.

Schedule: Strength #24 (7 way tie)

Team

Date

Arkansas State
9/4
@Mississippi State
9/9
Clemson
9/18
South Carolina
9/25
LA Monroe
10/2
@Kentucky
10/9
Arkansas
10/16
LSU
10/23
@Mississippi 10/30
Chattanooga
11/6
Georgia
11/13
@Alabama
11/26
SEC Championship
12/4

A top 25 run may be in the works here. 9-3 should do that. No promises though.

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Comments

Display:

Yeah. I really think Auburn could be the surprise team of the SEC.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Jul 28, 2010 11:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Shame we don't play

until next year.

Certified Pimp and Agent Free since 2010.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Jul 29, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah. Not for us. I don’t like playing Auburn. We seem to always lose.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Jul 29, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

You have a short memory, my friend

You may be sore over the 3-3 decade we just finished, but I’m still smarting over the 2-8 record during the 90s.

Certified Pimp and Agent Free since 2010.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Jul 29, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

After about 10 years. Nothing matters. IMO of course.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Jul 29, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

3-3 vs. Florida is something few teams can boast this decade.

Auburn might be the only team this young whipper snapper has seen beat his team more than once :)

That would be since 2006

Looking over the last decade, I can see why Florida quit playing Miami. That series they really did always lose. 1-4, with the 1 in 2008.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Jul 29, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, guys.

…..I think our strength of schedule was fine in 2004. We played more bowl teams than USC or Oklahoma. We just needed to stomp on a weak Bama team, and didn’t.

……That’s actually one of my pet peeves, that we haven’t blown Alabama out since 1969. Had chances a few times, but it didn’t work out. (Up 27-10 in 1989, let ‘em score 10 straight sitting back in prevent defense. Up 18-2 in the first quarter of 2003, dropped three TD passes in the second quarter. Up 21-0 in the first quarter in 2005, couldn’t keep the hammer down.) Bama used to blow us out in the 1960s and 1970s, and you could count on at least half of the phone calls in December being some turd yelling “rowl tahd!” into the phone. I’ve wanted a blow-out of Bama for SO many years, but we haven’t beat ’em by more than 10 in 40 years.

by Acid Reign on Jul 29, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions  

This would be a good year to do it too.

Slam the door in the face of the Bama faithful, just as they were seeing it open for the first time in a decade.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Jul 29, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

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