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Around SBN: The Pros and Cons of an 18-game NFL Schedule

47 Teams 'til Kickoff: Northwestern

[Editor's note: This series presents teams in order of the value each team would add to a conference hypothetical near the boarder of the criteria used by the BCS to determine future automatic qualifications. It is not a predictive measure of the 2010 season.]

This look at the Northwestern Wildcats is provided by Roger Sherman from Sippin' On Purple.

What have the Northwestern Wildcats done this off season to excite fans about the 2010 football season?

Northwestern has made one gigantic move this offseason, and it has nothing to do with anything on the field: it's definitely the announcement that this year's Illinois game will be at Wrigley Field. Everybody around the school is excited about the possibility of seeing a game at that venue, and there's hope that it will drum up support for the program with the generally disinterested Chicago market. Also, Illinois kinda sucks, so, there's that.

What lingering questions are nagging in the backs of fans minds?

Last year, Northwestern took a team that wasn't returning a star running back, quarterback, and three wide receivers, and turned it into a team that relied on being able to overpower people with offense. This year, we lose the quarterback, Mike Kafka, and top two receivers, Andrew Brewer, and Zeke Markshausen from that team - we're basically wondering whether lightning can continually strike over and over again in exactly the same place, and can that lightning also bring us a secondary, because both of our safeties and our best cornerback, Sherrick McManis graduated. Again, we return a lot of the peripheral pieces - all five offensive linemen, and a solid linebacking corps - but we're beginning to wonder how frequently you can just plug pieces into the offensive system and see if it works.

Do you think, based on the past three years, a ranking of 47 is fair? How about a strength of schedule of 70?

It's fair. I have no idea whether it's accurate. This team could win six games, could win nine. Last year's "oh crap oh crap oh crap we have no offensive skill position players" squad turned into an eight win team that came excruciatingly close to an Outback Bowl victory against Auburn, that blew a highly winnable game against Syracuse. Seemingly a hair's width away from ten wins, huh? But they also forced five turnovers to score 24 unanswered points to come back from 21-3 against Purdue, and a few weeks later, came back from a 28-3 hole to beat Indiana 29-28.

Now, factor in that our starting quarterback, Dan Persa, has only two games worth of real quarterbacking experience, and I refuse to make any predictions of any note.

As for our strength of schedule, it's horrific. We play three bottom tier FBS schools - Vanderbilt (happy trails, coach Johnson!), Rice, and Central Michigan, who, without Dan LeFevour, don't seem to pack much of a punch, and FCS Illinois State. I joke on the site that NU should consider just ending this charade and replacing one of those schools with my fraternity's IM 7-man flag football team, which is trying to bounce back from a rough 1-3 season. We're probably lower than 70, especially considering our conference schedule skips a strong Ohio State team and Michigan.

What do you expect to see in 2010?

I expect to see Northwestern win a bowl game. This hasn't happened since 1949, most of the time, people have not expected this, because people aren't stupid idiots. However, this year, NU's schedule is likely just crappy enough to give them at least should be six wins, and the team is just good enough to win those games, andthen be faced off against the eighth team from the MAC conference in something like the Akron Perennial Sadness Bowl, sponsored by Barbasol, a game I like their chances in. Of course, they could surprise me and appear in a better bowl, but since the past two years have featured overtime bowl losses to Missouri and Auburn in the Alamo and Outback, respectively, I think fate has doo-dooed on Northwestern enough for now.

There is no doubt Northwestern has come a long way in the past 30 years. What have been the key factors in reshaping Northwestern football?

30 years? Let's try 15: 30 years ago, NU was in the heart of their epic Division I record 34-game losing streak that lasted from 1979-1982, which was in fact part of a larger 1-54-1 streak. (I am glad I was not yet born at this time.)

This all changed as part of a disturbing pattern of winning. When NU won the Big Ten in 1995, the toolish highers-up at Northwestern noticed that hey, when we do well at football, more people - and therefore, more smart people - applied to the school, and therefore decided that their 90+ year policy of ignoring the school's athletic program while sending out hapless nerds to get murdered in football and basketball by Ohio State and company. That led to better funding, which led to more winning, which led to better recruiting, better recruiting led to more winning, and here I am blogging about how NU is looking to run off four straight .500 or better seasons for the first time since the universe was created several billion years ago.

[I intentionally picked thirty years because Northwestern was at an all time low and has reached a near all time high since, becoming relevant in a top conference.

I really think the wake up call came in the 1986 season, and the tide started turning in 1990. 1995 marked the point where a new commitment to the football program surfaced in tangible success.

Oh, and Northwestern was at or above 0.500 from 1895-1905. And again from 1924-1931. Ah the good old days, before the legal forward pass was added to the game in 1906.

It wasn't until the early 70's that Northwestern's approach to football diverged from the rest of college football (As measured by a marked decrease in performance).]

Thank you, Roger, for taking the time to preview the Northwestern Wildcats! For more on the upcoming Northwestern season please check out Sippin' On Purple.

Star-divide

Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (Fifth Year, Tenth overall)
Offensive Coordinator: Mick McCall (Third Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Hankwitz (Third Year)

BCS numbers:

 

2007
(6-6)

2008
(9-4)

2009
(8-5)

Average
(0.6053)

Computer Average

69.50

30.33

47.17

49.00

Top 25

0.00

1.00

0.00

0.33

Score

69.50

19.33

47.17

45.33

The recent changes at the assistant positions appear to have helped.

Schedule: Strength #70

Team

Date

@Vanderbilt
9/4
Illinois State
9/11
@Rice
9/18
C. Michigan
9/25
@Minnesota 10/2
Purdue
10/9
Michigan State
10/23
@Indiana
10/30
@Penn State
11/6
Iowa
11/13
Illinois
@Wrigley field
11/20
@Wisconsin
11/27

I guess this is what a near middle of the pack schedule looks like.

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