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52 Teams 'til Kickoff: Illinois

[Editor's note: This series presents teams in order of the value each team would add to a conference hypothetical near the boarder of the criteria used by the BCS to determine future automatic qualifications. It is not a predictive measure of the 2010 season.]

Today, Joe Kutsunis from Hail to the Orange will be giving us a look behind the curtain of the Illinois Fighting Illini.

What have the Illini done this off season to increase expectations for the 2010 season?

What has easily raised the expectations of the Illini fans is the house cleaning that has gone on in the coaching offices, everywhere at least but the very top. New Offensive and defensive coordinators in Paul Petrino and Vic Koenning, and with Petrino an entirely new offensive scheme. The Illini have made a habit of being flush with apparent talent but never seeming to be ready once game day rolled around, with the new coaches this hopefully will change. Furthermore, the addition of Koenning means that at least in theory Zook is no longer in full control of the defense, which given the underachievement we have seen in the last two seasons should not be a bad thing. A healthy Martez Wilson, a returning group of at least competently talented skill position players, and an at least slightly more favorable home and away schedule are reasons to at least be somewhat optimistic.

What questions remain unanswered going into the last month and a half of the off season?

Will our quarterbacks be ready? RS Freshman Nathan Scheelhaase is apparently good enough to pass over the two QB's on the roster with real experience, moving Eddie McGee to WR and Jacob Charest to transfer to parts unknown. Scheelhaase will be backed up by a true Freshman in Chandler Whitmer, meaning the most experienced player on the roster under center will be running routes and no where near the play calling. In the Big Ten with 100,000+ stadiums experience and confidence at QB is a must, so I just hope this kid is cocky as hell when he walks into Happy Valley.

Based on the past three years, do you feel a ranking of 52 is justified? What about a schedule strength of #31 (9 way tie)?

I suppose it is about right. We make two BCS bowls in a decade but also experience the doldrums of only beating 1-AA teams in other seasons. But hey at least we have seen the mountaintop. I'm just glad we aren't behind Indiana, those guys have been way worse way longer than we have. I don't know if I would rather have four years of bowl seasons, going 2-2 in the likes of the Motor City Bowl, or to have the current twice a decade BCS blowout adventure followed by a fall into the abyss. Actually neither seems all that appetizing. The strength of schedule by the way is a product of an athletic department that decided it wanted to try as hard as possible to keep the Illini out of bowl contention. Nobody really needed to have played three bowl teams, including a BCS bound Cincy and excellent Mizzou team, for their non-cons with Penn State Ohio State already on the schedule.

What do you expect to see on the field in 2010?

A lot of handing the ball off to Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford, with fullback runs, screen passes and bootlegs. We don't have the spread option anymore so we will have to rely on good old fashioned pass and run blocking to get our yards. It may not be as exciting, but hopefully it will be more consistent. As for the win total? I couldn't tell you yet, as long as we start the season with that God-awful game against Mizzou in St Louis the expectations are always skewed. We have to see an entirely new offense against a very deep and talented team, it is no way to start a season when other bowl bubble teams get to work out the kinks against teams like Towson or Youngstown State or some other cupcake.

Who will be in your division in 2011?

I expect to see Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwestern, but I could be wrong. There is nothing that says this has to be based on geography. I am just glad by going to 12 teams and having a championship game we will be lessening the "magic" of the Ohio State/Michigan game. Cow-towing to those two teams has held back the conference as a whole, and I am glad it seems to be shifting away from that.

Thank you, Joe, for taking the time to answer these questions! For a deeper look at Illinois' 2010 outlook please visit Hail to the Orange.

Now for a look at the BCS numbers generating the #52 ranking.

Star-divide

Head Coach: Ron Zook (Sixth Year)
Offensive Coordinator: Paul Petrino (First Year)
Defensive Coordinator: Vic Koenning (First year)

BCS numbers:

 

2007
(9-4)

2008
(5-7)

2009
(3-9)

Average
(0.4595)

Computer Average

16.17

66.67

89.67

57.50

Top 25

2.00

0.00

0.00

0.67

Score

-5.83

66.67

89.67

50.17

 2007 saw Illinois in the Rose Bowl. A trend like this is cause for coaches cleaning house, as was done here.

Schedule: Strength #31T

Team

Date

Missouri
9/4
S. Illinois
9/11
N. Illinois
9/18
Ohio State
10/2
@Penn State
10/9
@Michigan State
10/16
Indiana
10/23
Purdue
10/30
@Michigan
11/6
Minnesota
11/13
Northwestern
11/20
@Fresno State
12/3

S. Illinois may be the only sure win on this schedule. I think the Ohio State and Penn State games are fairly clear losses. The rest have too much uncertainty, usually on both teams, to call.

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