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If I Were King 1998

[Editor's note: This is a continuing look at what my design would look like for this year and will walk backwards one year per week, until the dawn of the BCS era. For other years and a better look at my design look here.]

Well, this series has reached the dawn of the BCS era. Without further ado, here is the final installment of how my designs would have compared to the BCS in each of the years it has existed.

Qualifying teams

Tennessee and Florida State would have qualified for being the top group of teams. Tulane would have qualified for being undefeated.

Since Tulane was not in the top 8 and would not have played three rounds the next group of teams would have been added. This next group of teams was Kansas State, Ohio State and UCLA.

Tournament

The following play-in games would be held on December 19th or 20th:

Tulane @ Kansas State, UCLA @ Ohio State.

The lowest ranked team to advance would play Tennessee in the Sugar Bowl. The other advancing team would face FSU in the Orange Bowl. The winners would advance to the National Championship Game.

Possible BCS Bowls

Rose: Wisconsin vs. Arizona
Fiesta: Texas A&M vs. Syracuse

Teams in bold would have been tied to that berth, italics indicate a BCS berth would have been guaranteed.

What actually happened and a tier based plus one next.

Star-divide

What actually happened

BCS Games

NCG-Fiesta: Tennessee 23 FSU 16
Sugar: Ohio State 24 Texas A&M 14
Rose: Wisconsin 38 UCLA 31
Orange: Florida 31 Syracuse 10

Kansas State, Arizona, Tulane, Nebraska, Virginia, Arkansas and
Georgia Tech were BCS eligible but not selected.

Under the current rules Tulane and Kansas State would have earned an automatic qualification.

Controversy

A wide gap formed between #2 and #3 after Kansas State's season ending loss to Texas A&M in the Big 12 championship game.

In addition to Tennessee, Tulane finished the regular season undefeated and went on to beat BYU 41-27 in the Liberty Bowl.

Ohio State being selected over higher ranked Kansas State was widely overlooked because Kansas State had just lost the Big 12 Champion Game to Texas A&M. Florida being selected over Kansas State and Arizona made geographical sense but caused some controversy.

A Tier Based Plus-One

Semifinals

Tennessee would have played Ohio State and FSU would have played Kansas State. (Guaranteeing access undefeated teams would have replaced Ohio State with Tulane.)

Direct Participants

UCLA would have received a direct participation as the highest ranked automatic qualifying conference champion. Syracuse would have received a direct BCS participation for not qualifying for two bowl games.

Tulane, Texas A&M and Wisconsin would have been guaranteed a direct participation. Ohio State would have been guaranteed a spot if the top four eligibility rules are used.

Remaining Teams Eligible for a Second Bowl

Air force, Arizona, Miami (OH), Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Marshall, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Virginia would have been eligible for a second bowl.

Possible first round games

Mid-West: Nebraska(Wisconsin) vs. Texas A&M
North: Wisconsin (Ohio State) vs. Miami (OH)
South: Tulane vs. Virginia
West: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

 

An Improvement

Under the BCS nine teams were left out how were very close to the #2 team in the BCS average. The flexible design significantly improves this metric.

26 teams went undefeated since the advent of the BCS. 14 went to the National Championship Game. This would have increased to 19 if undefeated teams were selected preferentially (a debatable ideal.) Similar results to preferentially allowing undefeated teams are obtained with a plus-one using the top four, and only two teams would have been omitted if undefeated teams were given preferential treatment. This is far better than the four undefeated teams that did not earn an invitation to a BCS bowl. The flexible design was able to handle all undefeated teams in all years.

Five years saw six teams win an automatic qualifying conferences with less than nine FBS wins.

The flexible system would have averaged 4.4 teams per year, similar to a plus one. Eleven BCS bowls would have been selected as semifinals in eight of the twelve years. An extra wild card game would have been used in eight of the twelve years and ten play in games would have been hosted in six of the eleven years.

Only one undefeated team did not play two teams that had finished in the top 25 in the final BCS standings in any of the four previous years. Hawaii could have been eliminated by employing this rule. Only seven teams in 2009 failed to schedule to this level, indicating that it is attainable even in the worst conferneces.

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