Dominoes - Big 10 Edition
Welcome to the start of my newest series! Today I will be discussing the ramifications of the Big 10's announcement a few months back that they are examining expansion options. In this series I will be looking at all potential changes in conference alignments, beginning with those conferences likely to be the drivers of change and ending with the Sun Belt. For a look at the series, and other series ran at this site, please visit our Table of Contents.
My analysis is far from unique. Big 10 blog The Rivalry Esq. has already covered the options. In fact, I am going to use his list of teams with my personal ordering here. He presents some interesting alignments with consideration of 14 and 16 team options. By gut reaction to those larger conferences was that similar designs are not working well for the MAC and failed the WAC in the late 1990's. This is not the MAC of WAC we are talking about however. This is the Big 10.
My main interest here is to kick off the chain of dominoes.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Independent
If the Big 10 moves it is likely to move decisively into a format it plans to keep for a while. If Notre Dame wants in they are at the top of the list of candidates, but this might be their last chance for quite some time. By turning down the Big 10 now, Notre Dame could be sealing their fate as an eventual all sport Big East member.
But first their NBC dollars would need to dry out.
Missouri Tigers - Big 12
Missouri is the top media pick, largely because they have already rolled out the red carpet for Big 10 officials.
West Virginia Mountaineers - Big East
I always bring this teams up, that I would like to see move up, and Big 10 fans always shoot it down. I guess I never learn.
Stupid academic snobs.
Texas Longhorns - Big 12
The Rivalry Esq. brings up some interesting points about Texas considering the Big 10 prior to joining the Big 8. They are the same points the PAC 10 brings to the table when expansion talks turn their direction (more on that next week).
But, Texas has moved to the Big 8, now the Big 12, and is unlikely to give up that thrown.
Pittsburgh Panthers - Big East
Penn State's natural rivalry brings little else to the table.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights & Syracuse Orange - Big East
Rutgers doesn't "give the Big Ten the New York market" any more than adding Middle Tennessee State would give the league the Nashville market.
Nebraska Cornhuskers - Big 12
Uhm, I am not sure where this comes from. A solid historic football team to be sure.
Cincinnati Bearcats - Big East
Cincinnati has emerged as a solid teams on the field but does not yet have the infrastructure to bring value to the Big 10. Unless we are talking Basketball. This next batch of teams are much better suited in this conversation on the hardwood.
Louisville Cardinals - Big East
Like Cincinnati, this team is barely a BCS team in the history books.
Maryland Terrapins - ACC
Certainly this is a solid basketball add and arguments can be made for the DC recruiting market.
Iowa St. Cyclones - Big 12
Indeed, I can be silly.
How Many Teams?
This is the really interesting question. I have to admit that I had only considered adding a single teams until I read the article linked above.
In these economic times one would suspect that sponsor, and then TV revenue might get tighter and travel costs might rise with inflation. This could swing the pendulum towards reducing travel costs.
The Big 12 and Big East look to be in the targets for expansion, and a move of more than one team could be seismic to the conference landscape.
The ACC might not be immune if larger expansions are considered and Notre Dame will have first pick.
Next week, the PAC 10 chain begins...
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Wouldn't expect any serious conference to go beyond 12...
until every conference fills out to 12 and a championship game. I could see the MAC (any number of solid midwestern I-AA teams) or the Big East (CUSA, independents, or some of the CAA teams) going to 14, but the lessons of the WAC shouldn’t be forgotten. 12 teams works fine for all sports (5/1/2 games a la SEC or 5/3 like other conferences for football, 5*2/6 for other sports), more than that and it’s a mess. I think we’ll see the WAC largely dissolve to the MWC/CUSA/Sun Belt unless they bring up several Big Sky/Great West schools in the next couple of years. I hope existing I-AA and startup teams have learned by now that moving up without a conference affiliation sucks really bad, so I would expect any new teams after the existing conferences fill out to come up as a group, IE 8 or 10 teams from the Southland or CAA, maybe adding a Sun Belt, CUSA or MAC school as needed.
Some interesting takes have been presented
by Frank the Tank, over at the MWC Connection.
This claim strongly supports a Texas expansion from a mutually benificial financial viewpoint. Texas A&M could be tied to Texas and 14 is MUCH better than 13. Missouri or Notre Dame are potential 14th teams.
I will get to the responses of the other conferences as this series unfolds..
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Rutgers.
I’m a Pitt fan (we’re in the Big East, by the way), so I have some dog in this fight, but objectively looking at the situation I think Rutgers will go.
Rutgers has a lot to gain from the Big Ten bowls, exposure, money, and academic affiliation. There’s just more to gain in the Big Ten than in the Big East, which is a basketball first, football second, academics third conference. If membership is offered to them, they’ll have to take it, assuming that Pitt or Syracuse would take it if they said no and the Big East will be wounded either way.
No-one thinks that a majority of New Yorkers care about all that much about Rutgers, but they have a fair-sized alumni footprint and there are also a lot of Alumni from other Big Ten schools in the densely populated New York-New Jersey corridor. The idea is to force comcast and local cable companies to move the Big Ten Network from a “specialty sports package” to regular expanded basic cable increasing exposure and revenue.
Will fix.
The president of Pittsburgh actually represents the Big East on the BCS Presidential Oversight Committee.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Rutgers definitely has a big alumni base
I knew a bunch of folks around here (Atlanta) growing up who went there well before I had any idea where it even was. Syracuse seems to be the smartest Big East team though – they still allow an east/west divisional split without adding anything to what would already be a heavyweight East (works for the Big 12 South though, and plenty of years in the last decade the SEC East was much stronger), and as much as you might hear arguments about the reputation of Big East hoops, money talks, and the Big 11 TV money is sick. I just don’t see any Texas schools leaving the Big 12… MAYBE for the SEC, but the geography just breaks it. I agree it looks great on paper if you assumed Texas was where Missouri is.
by commodore_dude on Jan 28, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
It doesn't look bad on paper from Texas.
Frank the Tank states the difference in TV revenue between the Big 10 and Big 12 is currently $10 Million per year per team. Suppose Texas’ travel costs increase by the $1 Million per game smaller schools require for a one and done for the 4 confernece away games. That is still an increase of $4 million.
This does not include the additional revenue to be shared from the conference game (maybe $1 Million each) and the increase in TV revenue Texas would bring to the Big 10 that Texas would share.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Here is the handy dandy guide to Big Ten Expansion Rumors
http://bull-run.blogspot.com/2010/02/ncaa-aq-theater-big-ten-expansion-rumor.html
Hello this is a public service announcement from the Big Ten
In recent weeks the landscape of college football has been shaken up by rumors that the Big ten is going to augment its numbers by adding one or more programs. While we did not intend to create such a fuss we are genuinely touched that so many schools are excited. This buzz has created an atmosphere of rumor mongering and we at the big ten do not feel that is productive.
So we at the Big ten have set up a few simple guidelines to help Big Ten and other College fans sort out things which might have some basis in truth from the more absurd rumors







