The BCS uses three criteria averaged over a four year window to evaluate future BCS automatic qualifications.

(1) the ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings each year
(2) the final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year
(3) the number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings each year.

MWC Connection recently asked some interesting questions clarifying these procedures.  Bill Hancock point blank answered that statistics for conference members in 2011 over the 2008-2011 window will be used.  This means that if Boise State joins the MWC in 2011 their numbers from 2008-2010 will count for the MWC to evaluate their automatic qualification status for 2012 and 2013.

Estimates of these numbers over 2006-2009 are hosted at BCS Guru's site.  These have been updated to include all 2009 data.  They are broken down by criteria and for each year to see how and when each conference earned their marks.

None of these three criteria depend on the bowls in any manner whatsoever.  Perhaps this is a subtle way for the BCS to communicate that the bowls are essentially meaningless.

If I were to attempt to design a system to undermine the bowls and raise a public outcry to implement a playoff I think it would be hard to achieve the success the BCS has attained.

A summary of these numbers looking at this year's and the 4 year running average is presented below.  The last entry represents what the MWC would look like if they added Boise State. These numbers were desigend so that 0.5000 represents the BCS cutoff.

The first note is that the Big East is not as bad as people tend to project.  They have managed to survive what many thought was a decapitating blow, but the teams that were cut off have not performed recently.   This year's data moved them over the Big 10 who appear to be in a steady decline.

The MWC also passed the WAC here this year.  Utah's 2004 Fiesta bowl appearance was not in these windows giving the WAC a 2-1 lead in BCS appearances that contributed greatly to their previous lead.

The MWC has performed at a level that should earn them an automatic qualification for 2012 and 2013 if they continue to perform at their current level.  If they expand to include Boise State their 4 year window should cross the BCS threshold after next year.  While the MWC might not strictly need Boise State to qualify the addition of Boise State would significantly increase the chances of meeting the criteria.

These numbers are estimates of the actual values used, as the actual values are not made public.