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Is there a reason to stay up all night running the numbers?

Alabama and Texas will be #1 and #2.

The order of #3 and #4 will not matter.  TCU and Cincinnati will both have an automatic qualification.

The final undefeated team, Boise State, is left hoping they are selected as an at large team.

Florida might be ranked ahead of Boise State this week but it does not matter.  They will be in the Sugar Bowl.

Georgia Tech will go to the Orange Bowl.

Oregon will play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

Iowa or Penn State will get an at large bid as a second Big 10 team.  They could go to the Orange Bowl but most likely they will play in the Fiesta Bowl.

LSU will be in the top 14 but not eligible as a third SEC team.

Virginia Tech and BYU will be the only other eligible teams, with a large gap between #14 and #15.

Star-divide

The only other relevant question is how many teams each conference will have in the final BCS top 25, as this is a factor in determining future BCS automatic qualifications.

This is really only an issue for at large conferences.

Houston's loss to ECU will knock C-USA out of the top 25.  Central Michigan's MAC chamionship win over Ohio will not get them into the BCS top 25, mostly due to computer votes.  They might be in the top 25 of the human polls.

The only team that might be in the top 25, other than the three that will be in the top 14, is Utah.

Utah is already in the top 25.  Arizona's win over USC should put them over Utah and USC very close to Utah.  With Houston and Nebraska falling past Utah it does not matter if both Arizona and USC are ahead of Utah, Utah will be no worse that #24.

Their really is no reason to run the BCS numbers other than a shear obsession with the numbers.

I will save that for examining the BCS bowls next week.

I suppose a final BCS Bowl projction is in order.  Teams in bold are at least 99.5% certain.  Teams in italics are guaranteed a spot, but not any particular spot.

NCG: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio St.
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. TCU

This projection has the Fiesta Bowl selecting TCU but the TV networks rearranging the teams to get them into the Sugar Bowl.

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Coaches poll out.

TCU will stay ahead of Cincinnati in the final BCS standings.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Dec 6, 2009 6:39 PM EST reply actions  

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