2010 Rose Bowl - #8 Ohio St. vs. #7 Oregon

by utesfan100 on Dec 31, 2009 8:30 PM EST Comment 4 comments

January 1st 2010, 4:30 ET ABC

The Granddaddy of them all, the Tournament of Roses New Year's day parade and game. Finally the BCS games begin and the top of the top begin to take the field this bowl season.

With ancient conference ties, the Oregon Ducks and Ohio St. Buckeyes earned their place in this bowl by winning the PAC 10 and Big 10 respectively. Ohio State is 8-6 in the Rose Bowl while Oregon has struggled in the Rose Bowl at 1-4. This will be a rematch of the 1958 Rose Bowl that Ohio State won 10-7.

Oregon has never beaten Ohio State in seven tries, with the three point Rose Bowl loss being the closest margin they have seen. Ohio State won the most recent meeting 24-14 in 1987.

Is 2010 the year Oregon finally beats Ohio St.?

Also, would you like to see a live thread here for the game? If ten people vote for it a half hour before kickoff I will make it happen.

You didn't expect the same breakdown for the BCS bowls as I did for the other bowls did you? Shame on you, if you did!

General

	Ohio St. Buckeyes	Oregon Ducks
Current Top 25 Faced	#10 Iowa (27-24 OT) #13 Penn St. (24-7) #24 USC (15-18) #25 Wisconsin (31-13)	#6 Boise St. (8-19) #18 Oregon St. (37-33) #20 Arizona (44-41 OT) #21 Stanford (42-51) #23 Utah (31-24) #24 USC (47-20)
BCS	0.6568	0.7568
Record	10-2	10-2

Just take a second to look at those schedules. They are a thing of beauty, with several rare solid out of conference opponents in teams from top conferences.

Imagine how much better the regular season would be if the BCS did not provide a financial incentive to avoid such games?

Still, despite being adjacent in the BCS standings a significant gap exists between these two teams in the average. I have to agree with the consensus at a first glance, though the Penn State game gives me caution since Oregon has no wins that really compare.

Offense

	Ohio St.	Oregon
Points	29.25	37.67
Yards	364.8	424.7
per play	5.54	6.13
Top Defenses Faced	#8 Penn St. #11 Iowa #19 Wisconsin	#12 Arizona St. #13 Boise St. #20 Utah
Average	#12.7	#15.0
Points	27.3	27.7
Yards	286.3	284
per play	4.94	4.92
Rushing	184.7	172
per play	4.36	4.69
Passing	101.7	112
per play	6.49	5.33
Turnovers	0.33	0.67

That is about as even as it gets. Oregon might take flight more than Ohio St. who would rather keep the ball on the ground. The irony is both do better per play with the opposite attack.

Defense

	Ohio St.	Oregon
Points	12.17	23.58
Yards	262.5	329.4
per play	4.07	4.85
Top Offenses Faced	#16 Toledo #34 Wisconsin #36 Penn St.	#8 Boise St. #13 Stanford #28 Oregon St.
Average	#28.7	#16.3
Points	6.7	34.3
Yards	259.7	418.3
per play	3.80	5.65
Rushing	69.0	167.0
per play	2.38	3.68
Passing	190.7	251.3
per play	4.85	8.77
Turnovers	1.67	1.33

Well now, how much of this difference is due to the difference in the opponents faced? I have a hard time believing that Toledo is the best offense Ohio St. has faced, but still I don't think this difference accounts for the wide margin here.

Oregon's biggest gap on defense is through the air, and Ohio St. does not push this very hard.

Summary

If Ohio St. finds a passing game and runs with it often this game could get interesting in a hurry for Oregon. If Ohio State keeps to their normal ground attack it should be a low scoring game with Oregon winning on a few big plays. I think the latter is more likely.

Oregon 23 Ohio St. 17

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