2009 Hawaii Bowl - Nevada vs. SMU
December 24th 2009, 8:00 ET ESPN
This year's Hawaii Bowl will feature the 8-4 Nevada Wolfpack vs. the 7-5 SMU Mustangs. This will be the eight Hawaii Bowl and the third without the Hawaii Warriors. Nevada will be making their second Hawaii Bowl appearance, with a 49-48 OT win over UCF in 2005. This is the only time either of this year's participants have been in a Hawaii Bowl.
Nevada leads the all time series 3-2, and three of the last four. SMU won the last meeting 38-20 in Dallas in 2004. All previous games where from 2000-2004 when both teams were members of the WAC.
Nevada started off with a three game losing streak to then rally off eight straight games before losing to Fiesta Bowl bound Boise State. Most of those games were not even close.
SMU finished winning four of their last five in a long season with many close games.
What will we see when these two teams meet on the field?
General
| Nevada Wolfpack |
SMU Mustangs |
|
| Current Top 25 Faced |
#6 Boise St. (33-44) | #4 TCU (14-39) |
| Ranking | #44 | #65 |
| Record | 8-4 | 7-5 |
At a first glance this game appears to be one of the most unbalanced games yet, in favor of Nevada. With a closer game against a top 6 opponent and a better record against nearly identical opponents Nevada looks to be a solid pick.
This also explains the 14 point line.
Nevada's Ball
| Nevada Offense |
SMU Defense |
|
| Points | 40.58 | 29.08 |
| Yards | 521.6 | 404.0 |
| Per Play |
7.48 | 5.60 |
| Rushing | 362.5 | 169.2 |
| Per Play | 7.59 | 4.41 |
| Passing | 159.3 | 234.8 |
| Per Play | 7.24 | 6.94 |
| Turnovers | 20 | 27 |
SMU has faced better offenses than the defenses Nevada has seen. These numbers should lean towards SMU's column. Nevada runs a pistol offense, which if you have not seen makes this game a must see.
Think power I formation with stunts and pulling at the line similar to the option and a direct snap to the half back with the QB replaced by a third receiver.
Nevada invented and is an expert at this novel scheme.
SMU's Ball
| Nevada Defense |
SMU Offense |
|
| Points | 27.17 | 27.92 |
| Yards | 398.9 | 379.9 |
| Per Play | 6.25 | 5.81 |
| Rushing | 114.7 | 112.8 |
| Per Play | 3.66 | 3.82 |
| Passing | 284.3 | 267.2 |
| Per Play | 8.75 | 7.44 |
| Turnovers | 18 | 26 |
Nevada's defense has seen many solid offenses and SMU has faced near average defenses. This tips the scale in Nevada's favor, indicating that the results may be lower than the numbers above which are very close.
Prediction
Nevada should slowly leverage their game and end very strong. If SMU is unable to take an early lead with a few quick strikes this game could get ugly for them quickly.
Nevada 34 SMU 24
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