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Around SBN: SB Nation MMA Rankings for August 2010

2009 New Orleans Bowl - Southern Mississippi vs. Middle Tennessee State

December 20th 2009, 8:30 ET - ESPN. 

This year's New Mexico Bowl will face off the Southern Miss. Golden Eagles vs. the Middle Tenn. St. Blue Raiders

This will be S. Mississippi's fourth trip to the New Orleans Bowl and they have a 3-0 record in their previous appearances. Middle Tennessee St. lost their only other bowl appearance in 2006. 

This will be the first meeting between these programs on the gridiron.  How is this series likely to begin?

Star-divide

General

S. Mississippi
Golden Eagles
Middle Tennessee St.
Blue Raiders
Current
Top 25
Faced
None None
Ranking #65 #61
Record 7-5 9-3

S. Mississippi has played in a tougher conference but the two loss difference is comparable to the difference, as seen in the rankings average.

 S. Mississippi's Ball

S. Mississippi
Offense
Middle Tennessee St.
Defense
Points 33.0 23.0
Yards 418.3 351.6
Per Play
6.03 4.97
Rushing 186.3 137.9
Per Play 4.71 3.48
Passing 232.0 213.7
Per Play 7.80 6.32
Turnovers 15 31

Both teams have faced similar opposition so these numbers should be representative of what we will see.  This offense and defense are very evenly matched giving a very good idea of what to expect.  Due to the difference in conference strength I would expect numbers closer to S. Mississippi's typical results here.

Middle Tennessee St.'s Ball

S. Mississippi
Defense
Middle Tennessee St.
Offense
Points 24.5 31.2
Yards 387.7 419.3
Per Play 5.30 5.70
Rushing 121.5 181.3
Per Play 3.44 4.58
Passing 266.2 238.1
Per Play 7.04 7.00
Turnovers 26 20

Again, little difference here gives a very clear picture of what is ahead on this side of the ball.  On this side I expect the numbers to roughly split the difference.

Prediction

This game should be a high scoring game, with both sides enjoying a good deal of success moving the ball whether by ground or through the air.

This game could come down to which team makes a costly turnover.  In that case I like S. Mississippi's odds.

I like S. Mississippi 31-28.

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