December 19th 2009, 4:30 ET - ESPN

This year's New Mexico Bowl is one of two MWC vs. WAC games this year.  This is a natural conference rivalry both because of the proximity of the teams and because of the sorted history and the wounds caused by the process in which they split.  Chief among those with sore feelings were the Fresno St. Bulldogs, whose play anyone anywhere anytime mantra has made famous nationally.

The Wyoming Cowboys are more known for being the insult added to Tennessee's injuries in 2008.

Fresno St. is a perennial candidate to dethrone Boise State if they falter.  Wyoming consistently is in the middle to bottom of the MWC.  The series is tied at 3-3 with both teams sweeping at home from 1992 through 1997.  For a tied series over a short duration the games were remarkably not close.  The average winning margin was 15.8 points.

Over a decade has past since these two team squared off on the football field.  How do they compare in the 2009 neutral site rubber match?

General

Wyoming has played more ranked teams but Fresno St. has played them more competitively.  Fresno St. has a solid lead in a broad battery of ranking methodologies.

 Fresno State's Ball

One thing that makes this difficult is the disparity among conferences.  The WAC particularly has a wide disparity between their offenses and defenses making it hard to distinguish how much their stats reflect strong offenses and how much reflects bad defenses.

Wyoming's defense has been tested better that Fresno St.'s offense.  I would expect numbers closer to Wyoming's average in this game.

One factor in Wyoming's favor is that Fresno St. has a history of turning the ball over.

Wyoming's Ball

Both sides have faced stiff tests this year.  I would expect numbers near the middle in this game on this side of the ball.

Prediction

Fresno St. should win by roughly 27-21, though a couple of costly turnovers by Fresno St. could make the game closer than this score.