Road to a Split Title?
Ok. TCU did not bust into the National Championship Game. We do have two teams from at large conferences in BCS bowls for the first time in the history of college football. This certainly cut down one of the most glaring glass ceilings in the BCS design.
But this is not one of the true BCS busting scenarios, as I discussed previously.
No, the real threat is a split title, 2003 USC style.
An outline for how this might be able to happen next ...
With 5 undefeated teams playing in three bowls this year's championship will be disputed. If Alabama rolls Texas and Florida beats down Cincinnati, the season long notions will be vindicated and the Fiesta Bowl winner will only carry an objection of a slim minority.If Texas beats Alabama and Cincinnati beats Florida the season long poll bias will be turned upside down. The SEC will have been exposed as the biggest fraud since the Big 10 in 2006. If the championship game is close in this scenario Cincinnati or the Fiesta Bowl winner could gain room on Texas with a commanding win and have a significant share of the public opinion.
TCU is the closest in the human polls so they would have a slight edge over Cincinnati in the AP race. Both teams would benefit from a loss by the other. Texas wins a three horse race, hands down. A two horse race will spur rigorous debate. Boise State could generate a buzz with a big win and a Cincinnati loss.
All in all the following bowl results would maximize the controversy of the 2009-2010 college football champion:
Texas beats Alabama in a close game, preferably on a controversial play
One of the following:
- Cincinnati routs Florida and a close Fiesta Bowl, preferably with Boise State winning
- Florida beats Cincinnati and a Fiesta Bowl rout, preferably with TCU winning
The second option is the most likely to induce more protest votes from activist AP voters, due to public opinions on the disparity of the conferences in the BCS system.
If either of these happen the #2 team would likely be closer to #1 team than Utah was last year, representing a lower consensus in the national championship. A Cincinnati win guarantees three undefeated teams which would raise controversy on its own.
I really believe Alabama is the real deal and Texas has some serious holes, but the dream is not dead. Not yet.
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