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If I Were King: November 9, 2009 - My BCS Alternative

[This is a weekly feature exploring what the BCS standings would look like if my proposed designs were in effect.]

First of all, what is the deal with a tropical storm in November.  Really?  And it is a cold rain.  Every tropical storm I have ever been in has been a warm soaking rain.  Just saying.  Cold November Rain? There was a day when I would have called that an oxymoron.   The days of the powdered mountains of Utah.

The days before Urban Meyer awoke a state to the potential of their program, when I first dabbled in crafting rankings of my own and watched as the MWC and BCS formed simultaneously and in a destined collision coarse.  The days I first wanted a change in the BCS and for the MWC to bust it wide open.

11 years latter, here is how the leading design I have crafted would work if the season ended today:

Qualifying teams: 6

Top group: Florida, Alabama, Texas
Undefeated: TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State

Tournament:

Florida and Alabama would receive a first round bye and be seeded into the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl respectively.

Texas would host Boise State.
TCU would host Cincinnati.

The lowest seeded team to advance would play Florida in the Sugar Bowl, with the other team meeting Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl.  The winners of these games would go to the National Championship game.

The Rose Bowl would have Oregon and Iowa
The Orange Bowl would have Georgia Tech and an at-large (likely USC)

What would the actual championship race be like in this design and a look at the plus-one I presented last week next:

Star-divide

The season does not end this week

If my plan was in effect, who would be satisfied they had a reasonable chance at the tournament?  Certainly all six undefeated teams would know they had a direct path ahead of them.  Florida and Alabama will play in the SEC championship game if neither loses, so at least one will lose a game.  If Texas or the eventual SEC champion loses a game this opens the door for the next pack of teams.  The question becomes who could join this group of teams.

It is not out of the question that Cincinnati could close enough of the gap to make it not qualify as significant by the standards I have defined.  The loser of the SEC championship game could help to fill the void as well.

Any of the top three teams could end up in this group with a single loss in their remaining games.  USC and the Ohio State vs. Iowa winner would be likely to join it with continued wins.  This is a total of ten teams that would have a shot at the tournament at this point in the season.

Not bad.  Lets also take a look at the plus-one design I forged last week: 

All teams better than 10-2 would be able to play 2 bowl games.  This is the only NCAA rule change required to allow this to happen.  This model assumes the top 15 would finish better than 10-2.

The semifinals would be Florida vs. TCU and Alabama vs. Texas.  The winners would go to the national championship game and the losers would participate in the traditional BCS bowls.

Currently all BCS conferences are on pace to have a champion with 10 wins.  The SEC and Big 12 champions are in the semi-finals.  The next two automatic qualifying champions are Cincinnati and Georgia Tech.  Georgia Tech would be placed in the Orange Bowl and Cincinnati would be guaranteed a spot in the BCS selection pool.  Both would be free to play a pre-Christmas bowl without risking these bids.

No conference has more than three teams in the top 14, so they are all available.  Selecting the highest ranked teams we get Boise State, LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Oregon and Miami in the four newly christened regional first round games.

Mid-West: Iowa vs. Oregon
North: Ohio State vs. Pittsburgh
South: LSU vs. Miami
West Coast: Boise State vs. USC

The winners would advance to be selected by BCS bowls and the losers would be selected by four bowls electing to leaving a spot open for a later pick when the initial round of selections were made.

Notice that half of the BCS bowl participants would have to win their way into the game.  This would help to accentuate their merit as a stand alone regional championship in their own right.  They would still have the rights to pick first among the members of their traditional conference tie-ins if at least one qualifies.

This looks much better than allowing 6-6 team to be on equal footing for bowl eligibility as a winning team to me.

Poll
Weekly preference poll:
12 team playoff with 4 first round byes
1 votes
8 team MWC-like design
4 votes
16 team talonk design
9 votes
Plus-one
5 votes
Go back to the old bowls, no BCS
0 votes
A flexible tournament design
3 votes

22 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 1 comment

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So in my playoff scenario, (my best guesses to BCS rankings and games to be played – obviously not going to be 100% accurate), here is how my playoffs would shake out:

Sat Dec 13:
16 Troy 9-3 at 1 Alabama 13-0
15 Central Michigan 11-2 at 2 Texas 13-0
14 Houston 12-1 at 3 TCU 12-0
13 Miami FL 10-2 at 4 Florida 12-1
12 Oregon 10-2 at 5 Cincinnati 12-0
11 Pitt 10-2 at 6 GA Tech 12-1
10 Boise St 13-0 at 7 USC 10-2
9 LSU 11-1 at 8 Ohio St 10-2
 - moved Oregon down one so Pitt and Cincinnati did not meet in Round 1.

Assume 1 upsets, say Pitt, Round 2 becomes:
Sat Dec 20
11 Pitt 11-2 at 1 Alabama 14-0
8 Ohio St 11-1 at 2 Texas 14-0
7 USC 12-1 at 3 TCU 13-0
5 Cincinnati 13-0 at 4 Florida 13-1

Now assume Bama, Texas, Florida and USC win:

BCS bowls (semifinals) look like this:

Sugar: 1 Alabama vs 7 USC
Fiesta: 2 Texas vs 4 Florida
Rose: Ohio St vs Cincinnati
Orange: Pitt vs TCU

Winner of Sugar meets winner of Fiesta in Title game following week. (Assume Texas vs Alabama)

All non-BCS bowl games take existing affiliations with the losers of Round 1 added to the mix as follows:

GMAC: Fresno St 7-5 vs Temple 9-4 (ACC #9 replacement vs MAC #2)
International: South Florida 7-5 vs Ohio U 8-4 (BigEast #5 vs MAC #3)
Liberty: Houston 12-1 vs Georgia 6-6 (CUSA #1 vs SEC #6/7)
Cotton: Nebraska 9-4 vs Ole Miss 8-4 (Big12 #2 vs SEC #3/4 [West champ])
Alamo: Mich St 6-6 vs Oklahoma 7-5 (Big 10 #5 vs Big 12 #4)
PapaJohns: West Virginia 8-4 vs Kentucky 6-6 (Big East #4 vs SEC #9)
Gator: Clemson 9-4 vs Notre Dame 6-6 (ACC #3 vs Big East #2/Notre Dame)
Capitol One: LSU 10-2 vs Iowa 10-2 (SEC #2 vs Big 10 #2)
Outback: Wisconsin 10-2 vs Auburn 8-4 (Big 10 #3 vs SEC #3/4 [East champ])
Chick-Fil-A: Tennessee 7-5 vs Miami FL 10-2 (SEC #5 vs ACC #2)
Insight: Kansas St 7-5 vs Minnesota 6-6 (Big 12 #6 vs Big 10 #6)
Sun: Arizona 8-4 vs Texas Tech 7-5 (Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12 #5)
Armed Forces: Air Force 7-5 vs Marshall 8-4 (MWC #3 vs CUSA #3)
Holiday: Arizona 8-4 vs Oklahoma St 10-2 (Pac 10 #2 vs Big 12 #3)
Texas: Texas A&M 6-6 vs Navy 10-3 (Big 12 #8 vs CUSA/Navy)
Humanitarian: Boise St 13-0 vs Middle Tennessee St 8-4 (WAC #1 vs MWC #5 replacement)
Sports: VA Tech 9-3 vs Northwestern 7-5 (ACC #4 vs Big 10 #4)
Eaglebank: Northern Illinois 8-4 vs Southern Mississippi 6-6 (ACC #8 replacement vs Army/CUSA #6)
Independence: South Carolina 6-6 vs Iowa St 7-5 (SEC #8 vs Big12 #7)
Music City: Boston College 9-3 vs Arkansas 7-5 (ACC #5 vs SEC #6/7)
Emerald: Stanford 8-4 vs North Carolina 7-5 (Pac 10 #4 vs ACC #7)
Meinecke: Rutgers 9-3 vs UCLA 6-6 (Big East #3 vs ACC #6 replacement)
Pizza: Central Michigan 11-2 vs LA-Monroe 8-4 (MAC #1 vs Big 10 #7 replacement)
Hawaii: Nevada 8-4 vs East Carolina 8-5 (WAC #2 vs CUSA #2)
Poinsettia: BYU 9-3 vs California 7-5 (MWC #2 vs Pac 10 #6)
Las Vegas: Utah 10-2 vs Oregon St 8-4 (MWC #1 vs Pac 10 #5)
New Orleans: SMU 7-5 vs Troy 8-4 (CUSA #4 vs Sun Belt #1)
St. Petersburg: UConn 6-6 vs UCF 7-5 (Big East #6 vs CUSA #5)
New Mexico: Idaho 8-4 vs Bowling Green 7-5 (WAC #3 vs MWC #4 replacement)

by talonk on Nov 10, 2009 12:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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