Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
4: Big East, PAC 10, Big 10
3: SEC, MWC, ACC
2: Big 12
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

What this all means after the jump...

The standings managed to get a significant shake-up this week due to a large number of losses.  The clusters of teams largely remain intact and moved up as teams fell around them.

Race to the National Championship Game

My estimated NCG lineups have changed slightly, mostly as a result of pruning the teams that have eliminated themselves.  Also, The Big 12 has not been strong enough to boost Texas as I had anticipated and the SEC championship game participants have been set.

The second batch of teams would be close enough that public sentiment at the time of the final standings would have the final say.

• Florida
• Alabama
• Texas
 
• Florida with a loss
• Alabama with a loss
• Texas with a loss
• Cincinnati
• TCU
  
• Georgia Tech
• Boise State

Race to the BCS Automatic Qualifications

Currently only teams within one game behind are included.  Other teams may still be able to win their conferences.

This much is certain: none of the conference races (except maybe C-USA) are anywhere near as complicated as the ACC was last year this time.

Georgia Tech appears to have clear sailing to the ACC Championship game, with Clemson's lead for the more competitive Atlantic division race solidifying.

Texas is in the solid lead in the South and Kansas State has a slight lead in the North.  The Kansas State Nebraska rivalry game might end up becomming a Big 12 semifinal game.

The winner of this game will likely earn the Big East title and a BCS berth.

The winner of the Ohio State Iowa game this week will have a commanding lead in the Big 10 race.  Penn State and Wisconsin do not play this year.

If Ohio State defeates Iowa this week, both Rose Bowl participants will have at least two losses this year.

Stanfords upset of Oregon once again stirred the PAC 10 race.  The Oregon-Arizona winner will have a clear shot at the Rose Bowl.

With 2 games left and a three game lead we can call the SEC East for Florida now.  The winner of the LSU-Alabama game will have the lead in the West and alabama could secure an insurmountable two game lead with the head to head tie breaker.

The race for the top non-automatic qualifying team

No change here this week.  TCU has taken the lead for that spot reserved for those without a conference automatic qualification and will keep that lead unless they lose.  Boise State is next in line.  Utah can settle it on the field against TCU but would still need a Boise State loss.  Houston would need a Boise State loss and a loss by the eventual winner of the TCU-Utah game to be guaranteed a spot.  Even then, they might not be ahead of TCU.

Guarantee clause for #3 and #4 Spots

If Cincinnati loses and both TCU and Boise State win out, the loser of the SEC championship game could possibly fall to #5 and put TCU and Boise State at #3 and #4.  A Georgia Tech loss might be needed as well.  As it is currently worded, only teams from conferences with an automatic qualification would qualify for this exception.  I frankly don't think this case was seriously entertained prior to my post last week and suspect that this rule may be clarified after the First Selection Teleconference on November 24th.

Either way, if this event happens and both don't get an invite things might get heated for the BCS folks.  They might choose to avoid this and select the second as an at-large.  Rumors of the Fiesta Bowl entertaining the thought of a Pointsettia Bowl rematch if Texas goes to the NCG and a second Big 12 team is not available have made the rounds.

The race for the three remaining the at-large berths

All teams in the top 20 should expect that winning their games is all they need to become eligible for a BCS berth. 

Some interesting rules come into play if the top 14 become constrained due to the provision that a conference may not qualify a third team as an at-large selection.  After the seven guaranteed spots discussed above only three BCS spots remain.  This is unlikely as the SEC will qualify a second team and the Big 10 and PAC 10 look set to qualify one as well.  The ACC and Big East could have an eligible team as well.

Should the automatic qualifying conferences fail to fill all these slots a second or even third team from outside the automatic qualifying conferences would likely be available this year.