BCS Standings Projections and poll release open thread.
by utesfan100 on Nov 7, 2009 11:53 PM EST
in BCS Analysis
7 comments
Alabama took care of the LSU tigers, clinching an Alabama vs. Florida SEC championship game. Ohio State delivered a likely knockout punch to Penn State. Iowa lost a QB and their first game at home facing Northwestern. Stanford upset upstart Oregon. Navy drove another nail into Notre Dame's coffin.
How will the BCS standings shake out this week? For a second opinion I recommend BCS GURU.
1) Florida Gators. With a solid lead in the standings and a win Florida should remain at the top this week.
2) Alabama Crimson Tide. Texas passed Alabama last week with a quality win over Oklahoma State. Alabama will return that favor due to the respect earned at the expense of LSU.
3) Texas Longhorns. Texas will be ready to fill in for whoever loses the SEC championship game.
4) TCU Horned Frogs. I will admit the next three teams are close.
7) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Darwinian theory. Survival of the fittest. Or survive and advance.
8) USC Trojans. Again we get a tough group of four teams to sort out as teams that are falling after a loss are extremely difficult to accurately divine.
9) LSU Tigers. Lots of losses around them and a loss to a respectable opponent allow them to hold their ground with a loss.
10) Iowa Hawkeyes.
11) Ohio St. Buckeyes. A win over a solid Penn State puts Ohio State into this group of teams.
12) Oregon Ducks. I originally wanted to put them lower in this next batch of four teams between Houston and Miami (FL), but could not see the voters putting them behind a Utah team they beat earlier this season.
13) Utah Utes.
14) Houston Cougars.
15) Miami Hurricanes.
[Edited to correct for Houston not losing to Tulsa]
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Houston actually won
46-45
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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 8, 2009 12:08 AM EST reply actions
So let's say Utah beats TCU...
With BYU left (and the Cougars will most likely win out) can they jump an undefeated BSU team?
And when I say BYU wins out...I mean they win out until the Utah game.
My scenario obviously suggests the Utes win out and finish the regular season 11-1.
No.
Like your scenerio and my ideal scenerio are not aligned ; )
There is a bit of a conflict of interest here. If we lose and TCU wins out Utah will get an extra $500K in BCS money this year compared to what we would get if we lose and Boise State wins out. If Bosie Sate loses we would get an extra $4 Million more by going to the BCS than we would if TCU goes instead.
If you don’t think this is significant watch the SEC officiating. Or the Big East in 2007. Or the PAC 10 any year. (Good luck collecting the $30,000 fine from me ; )
There is too large of a gap between the cluster of teams Bosie State is in and the cluster of teams Utah is a part of.
Utah could catch teams up where Georgia Tech is, but the rankings are a moving target and most of these teams face opponents as recognised at TCU left. Thus they would move up above where Utah moves up to. Some will lose causing a general drift upward.
BYU will likely appear just under #20 and might climb as high as #15 when Utah plays them.
So while Utah can climb to where Bosie State is now, Bosie State would then be in the top 5, #4 if Cincinnati loses.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
I don't think it is going to happen
Unfortunately, I don’t think Utah will leapfrog too many teams should they beat TCU…at least not nearly enough to catch Boise State.
A lot of losing will have to happen. Iowa will have to lose to Ohio State.
Ohio State will have to lose at Michigan.
LSU and USC will both have to lose again.
It is likely Pitt will lose at least one of its last 3 games (Notre Dame, @West Virginia, Cincinnati—what a brutal way to end the season, BTW, although it will pay handsomely if they run the table).
Georgia Tech will have to lose.
I doubt Cincinnati would fall far enough with only one loss to fall below Utah.
Boise State
I realize that triangulating teams isn’t a very reliable thing to do, but I’m going to do it with Boise, since it is the best argument they have.
Obviously, Boise State’s domination of Oregon has served it well and we all know that.
But their second best win was probably against an underrated Fresno State team, who they beat 51-34 in Fresno. The reason I think this is important (and again, I do think margin of victory has some importance) is because Fresno State has been pretty good. Their 3 losses were @Wisconsin (34-31), @Cincinnati (28-20), and at home to Boise State (51-34).
Maybe this post has more to do with my argument against the notion that non-BCS teams wouldn’t be successful playing in BCS conferences week in and week out. Two BCS teams narrowly escaped with wins on their home field while Boise State won by 17 on the road.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t know that any team has dominated a conference like Boise State has the WAC and Utah and TCU have recently in the MWC. I think all three schools can legitimately play with anyone in the nation any week of the year.
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