[This is a weekly feature exploring what the BCS standings would look like if my proposed designs were in effect.]

What would happen if the season ended today?  Not much different from last week, just some rearrangement of the teams.

Qualifying teams: 7

Top group: Florida, Texas, Alabama
Undefeated: Iowa, Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State

Tournament:

Florida would receive a first round bye and be seeded into the Sugar Bowl.  Texas is the next highest seeded team so the Fiesta Bowl would be selected as a semifinal.

Texas would host Boise State.
Alabama would host TCU.
Iowa would host Cincinnati.

The lowest seeded team to advance would play Florida in the Sugar Bowl, with the other two teams meeting in the Fiesta Bowl.  The winners of these games would go to the National Championship game.

The Rose Bowl would have Oregon and an at-large (likely Penn State)
The Orange Bowl would have Georgia Tech and an at-large (likely USC)

The season does not end this week

If my plan was in effect, who would be satisfied they had a reasonable chance at the tournament?  Certainly all seven undefeated teams would know they had a direct path ahead of them.  Florida and Alabama will play in the SEC championship game if neither loses, so at least one will lose a game.  If Texas or the eventual SEC champion loses a game this opens the door for the next pack of teams.  The question becomes who could join this group of teams.

It is not out of the question that Iowa could close enough of the gap to make it not qualify as significant by the standards I have defined.

Any of the top three teams could end up in this group with a single loss in their remaining games.  Oregon is already in this group of teams.  LSU and USC would be likely to join it with continued wins.  This is a total of ten teams that would have a solid shot at the NCG at this point in the season with my design.

Lets examine a key issue with this design:

When I have presented this design I have found that I encounter two sources of criticism.  I don't think that's bad for ideas vetted in the comments of blogs around the web.

The first is that the explanation of the design is too complicated.  The fact is that for any design to be complete it must handle side issues and this adds complexity.  It is the fact that my design is thorough that makes it complex, and this is not something I can  dispense with.

The second is that the variable number of games would be a logistical nightmare.  This issue is a far more critical and needs to be addressed.

First, 5 games are played every year.  The four BCS bowls and the NCG do not waver.  They provide both an historic framework and a solid base upon which all other games in the tournament rely upon for definition and meaning.

The largest variable is the neutral site wild card game.  This game would have been used in 8 of the last 11 years.  This is managed by maintaining a wild card queue of cities who have successfully petitioned to be included on the list.  When a city comes up they will have a year to anticipate that they may have a game.  They would have nearly a month's notice as to whether they will actually have a game when the regular season ends.   If they don't get a game they would be up again the following year, as that is how a queue works and they signed up for it knowing this was a possibility.

This game functions as a buffer to keep the design at 10-11 teams total regardless of the number of teams participating.  This allows the remaining bolws to continue as they are undistributed.

The play-in games act as BCS qualifiers.  Being hosted at the favored teams makes the logistics a lot simpler, as teams in the top 15 of the first BCS standings would be formally notified they may be asked to host such a game.  This would allow them a month to figure out what venues are available and have a plan ready.  Also, having a two day window would give some flexibility to work around existing events at potential host sites. 

From 1935-1970 the NFL postseason featured a championship game and tie-breaker games, as needed.  This is the longest period in NFL history that the postseason was unaltered.  All games were hosted by one of the teams.  At least in the design I present the date and location of the championship game would be known months in advance.

Major League Baseball and Basketball both continue to have the possibility of a tie-breaker game prior to the formal tournament.  These both feature a format that requires a variable number of games that is far more involved than what I am proposing.  The College World Series is far more involved than what I am proposing here.

I am not going to argue that my designs don't increase the logistical overhead.  They do, but not to a level that is out of bounds for a championship event with a national interest to get right.