Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
5: PAC 10
3: SEC, Big 12, MWC, Big East, Big 10, ACC
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

Analysis after the jump.

Did I really get the date wrong last week?  Ok.  I admit I cut and paste the format of the previous weeks analysis and really most of each weeks assessment is a slight change from the previous weeks results.  Once the conference races are outlined in full the rest is just pruning the branches that fail.

Next week I will be looking at each of the BCS components to actually project the final BCS standings.  This page will be updated after the official BCS standings are released.  This week enjoy the peek behind the curtain to how I can release my analysis of the BCS standings immediately (+/- time to update and format the table) after their public release.

Race to the BCS Championship Game

The SEC Champion will be in the BCS Championship Game (BCG).

Texas will be in the BCS Championship Game if they win the Big 12 Championship Game.

Cincinnati will be in the BCS Championship Game if they beat Pittsburgh and Texas loses to Nebraska.

TCU has finished their season and will be in the BCS Championship Game if Texas and Cincinnati both lose next week.

Race to the BCS Automatic Qualifications

Ohio State and TCU have earned an automatic qualification.

The following games will decide the remaining 5 automatic qualifications:

• Florida vs. Alabama
• Texas vs. Nebraska
• Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
• Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
• Oregon vs. Oregon State

The loser of the SEC championship game could be in the top 4 and garner an additional automatic qualification.  Boise State cannot earn an automatic qualification in this manner and no other teams can get into the top 4.

Race for At Large Eligibility

Boise State, Iowa, Penn State, Virginia Tech and BYU have finished their season and are ranked high enough to be BCS eligible.

Even with a loss Florida, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati will be BCS eligible.  Oregon and Georgia Tech could remain BCS eligible with a loss.  The remaining teams in games to determine automatic qualifications must win to finish BCS eligible.

LSU, Miami and USC have the potential to become BCS eligible, particularly if Clemson, Texas, Cincinnati, and Oregon win.

Only one of Iowa or Penn State may be selected and LSU is unlikely to be selected over the loser of the Florida vs. Alabama game.  Miami has some chance of being selected over Virginia Tech if they become eligible.

BCS Bowl Selection

• The top two teams in the standings will go to the BCG.  This is outlined above.
• The Rose Bowl will see Ohio State play the Oregon vs. Oregon State winner.
• The Orange Bowl will face the Georgia Tech vs. Clemson winner against the first at-large selection.
• The Fiesta Bowl will face Nebraska or the Texas replacement against the second at-large selection.
  
• The Sugar Bowl will face the SEC runner up against the third at-large selection.

With Oklahoma State out of the picture it will be interesting to see who the Fiesta Bowl begins to look at for a Texas replacement.  TCU will be a strong candidate.

The Orange Bowl would likely select the Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh winner due to their history with the Big East.  If Cincinnati gets to the BCG then Texas becomes a very likely pick here.

The Fiesta Bowl would be likely to select Iowa at this point, or TCU if Cincinnati is in the BCG.

The Sugar Bowl would then be faced with a choice between an undefeated and top 6 Boise State and a second ACC team in the 11-14 range.  BYU, Cincinnati and USC might be unlikely options as well.  If TCU is in the BCG then Texas or Pittsburgh would be selected here depending on which one is left from the Orange Bowl's selection.

The BCS officials would then consider alternate arrangements of the selected teams that might produce a more marketable arrangement for all parties involved.  Basically, the TV networks and Sugar Bowl might attempt to buy TCU from the Fiesta Bowl.  This sell might go better with the selection of Boise State over an ACC team.  USC or BYU could provide value here as well, especially if the Sugar Bowl is attempting to make a move for the Orange Bowl's potential selection of Texas.

BCS Bowl Projection

In all Scenarios Alabama and Florida would be exchanged if Florida beats Alabama.  These projections are for entertainment purposes only.  BCS Evolution assume no responsibility for any losses caused by any use of these projections.

Scenario One: Texas in the BCG

Pittsburgh would replace Cincinnati with a win.

BCG: Alabama vs. Texas

Rose: Ohio St. vs. Oregon

Orange: Clemson vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta: TCU vs. Iowa

Sugar: Florida vs.Virginia Tech

Scenario Two: Cincinnati in the BCG

BCS: Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Rose: Ohio St. vs. Oregon

Orange: Clemson vs. Texas

Fiesta: Nebraska vs. TCU

Sugar: Florida vs. Iowa

Scenario Three: TCU in the BCG

BCS: Alabama vs. TCU

Rose: Ohio St. vs. Oregon

Orange: Clemson vs. Texas

Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Iowa

Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh