BCS Standings Preview and Poll Release Open Thread.
by utesfan100 on Nov 28, 2009 11:50 PM EST
in BCS Analysis
13 comments
Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma State did not follow through this week. How will the BCS standings shake out as a result?
Next week I will apply far more rigorous methods to emulate the standings. For fair warning, if you like to gather the polls as they are released to figure out the standings, the computers will be delayed next week. only the USA Today Coaches poll and Sagarin rankings will be available next week before the BCS standings are released.
That is next week. Let's project this week. BCS Guru does better that I.
4) TCU Horned Frogs (These two are very close)
7) Oregon Ducks
9) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
10) Iowa Hawkeyes
11) Penn St. Nittany Lions (These last five are a bit tricky)
14) BYU Cougars
15) LSU Tigers
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Both will be BCS eligible.
That will be interesting to watch. Some echoes from the bowls will likely be heard this week to indicate who leads this race.
The Sugar would surely pick VT over Boise State, but the Fiesta Bowl might see things differently, especially now that Oklahoma State is out of the picture.
If Nebraska wins next week that will help TCU’s NCG hopes but dash Boise State’s BCS hopes.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
That would suck for TCU
Because the Orange may take them, but the Orange gets first picks and I could see them take the second Big 10 team. Also, if Clemson beats Ga Tech then I doubt TCU would go to the Orange since that would be a rematch. That could send TCU to Fiesta or Sugar. I think TCU will be in the Sugar against the SEC loser.
by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 29, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
While you are correct that the Orange gets first pick (the order this year is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar), remember that if the NCG is Florida/Bama vs Texas, the Sugar and Fiesta get to replace those teams before the Orange gets to that first pick. Therefore, assuming the SEC champ is BCS #1 and Texas is BCS #2, the picking order is Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.
It is clear the Sugar will take the SEC CG loser. Then the fun begins. As both Penn St and Iowa travel extremely well, my guess is they get picked to replace Texas in the Fiesta. With GA Tech already slotted, the Orange has to choose between Cincinnati, TCU and most likely Boise St. I suspect they take TCU. Then the Fiesta probably takes Cincinnati. That leaves the Sugar to decide if they want another non-BCS school matchup like last season by taking Boise St or if they reach for a 3 loss school (not likely).
Of course, this is all moot if Texas loses next week and/or Cincinnatie loses to Pitt. And with GA Tech losing today they don’t look to be a viable option either if they lose to Clemson. So Boise St is this close to a lock.
Thats right the replacements
That changes things. Big 10 second team to Fiesta, and I do not see the Fiesta taking Cincy when Boise is right in their backyard. Also, Va Tech could be a wild card in this as well. They travel well and could be the Sugar Bowls 2nd pick on the turn around leaving the Fiesta with Big Ten vs. TCU or Va. Tech to Fiesta and TCU to Sugar.
by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 29, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
If no non-ACC/SEC/Big Ten school sneaks into the top 14
I think I’d project the Big East champ in the Orange for pretty much the same reason. None of TCU / Boise / Cinci / Pitt will draw big crowds, and Cinci at least has the shortest commute to Miami.
Iowa, Penn State and Virginia Tech are already in the top 14
and have no games left.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Gah.
I was talking about teams beyond those already there.
Additional Big Ten teams beyond the first don’t matter, except that they take up space in the top 14. ACC teams do not matter to the Orange Bowl, as they won’t stage an all-ACC game.
I somehow read only the comment and not the subject line.
Weird I know.
I think we are all agreed that the Orange will take either Big 10 #2 or Big East #1.
I don’t think adding another PAC 10 team (Oregon if Oregon St. wins, or USC if some major upheavals happens) will change that. No other teams can become BCS eligible that would not be a third team from their conference.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Would it really be major upheavals for USC?
They should beat Arizona. Oregon should beat Oregon State. Cinci should beat Pitt. I’m sure all are fairly significant favorites, in fact. Clemson over Georgia Tech would be a mild upset, but not a major one. And I can’t think poll inertia is strong enough to keep BYU and Miami ahead of USC.
And why wouldn’t it change things? Oregon and USC might not be Big Ten or Big 12 or SEC mega-draws, but they’re a long way from being mid-major or ACC/Big East level when it comes to traveling fanbases. There’s very little doubt in my mind the Orange would take USC if they were available, especially if they had Clemson to sell tickets. And Oregon is almost as sure of a thing.
I don't see USC passing Miami
I agree that if USC is eligible they would be a very likely pick. They would replace Virginia Tech in any of my projections, and could help push TCU to the SUgar Bowl as the Fiesta Bowl would be strongly interested in them as well.
Even if they pass Miami and Oregon State and Pittsburgh lose that would put them at #15. I am not certain that a Georgia Tech loss to Clemson would knock them out of the top 14, but it would be close. I don’t think USC will become eligible.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Regardless of which they pick to replace Texas...
The other will likely be present after the Orange Bowl picks and favored by the Fiesta Bowl for their at large pick.
I think the Fiesta Bowl is likely to pick a TCU vs. Iowa game, but might get TCU bought from them by the Sugar Bowl and FOX to make a more marketable arrangement.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
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