Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
5: ACC
4: SEC, PAC 10
3: MWC, Big 10
2: Big 12, Big East
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

What this all means after the jump...

This week most teams faced opponents to give there outgoing seniors a good game or to get ready for next week's rivalry games.  The biggest development was the clarification of the PAC 10 race, which is now down to a single game.

Race to the National Championship Game

I have finally pushed Cincinnati and TCU over the leaders with a loss.  I also corrected last weeks over zealous placement of TCU ahead of Cincinnati.  Cincinnati will pass TCU if both win out.

• Florida
• Alabama
• Texas
 
• Cincinnati
• TCU
• Florida with a loss
• Alabama with a loss
• Texas with a loss
• Georgia Tech
• Boise State

Race to the BCS Automatic Qualifications

The conference races have all been reduced to one or two games.  Several are reduced to the already determined championship games.

ACC

Georgia Tech will play Clemson in the ACC championship game.

Big 12

Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game.

Big East

Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh this week to determine the Big East's automatic qualification.

Big 10

Ohio State has won the Big 10 outright.

PAC 10

Oregon faces Oregon St. for the PAC 10's Rose Bowl spot. 

SEC

Florida will play Alabama in the SEC championship game.

The race for the top non-automatic qualifying team

TCU has maintained their commanding lead for that spot reserved for those without a conference automatic qualification Boise State is next in line if they lose.  A Boise State loss would clinch a BCS berth for TCU.

Guarantee clause for #3 and #4 Spots

It is likely the loser of the SEC championship game will gain an automatic qualification in this manner.

If Cincinnati loses and both TCU and Boise State win out, the loser of the SEC championship game could possibly fall to #5 and put TCU and Boise State at #3 and #4.  A Georgia Tech loss might be needed as well.  As it is currently worded, only teams from conferences with an automatic qualification would qualify for this exception.  I frankly don't think this case was seriously entertained prior to my post last week and suspect that this rule may be clarified after the First Selection Teleconference on November 24th.

Either way, if this event happens and both don't get an invite things might get heated for the BCS folks.  They might choose to avoid this and select the second as an at-large.  Rumors of the Fiesta Bowl entertaining the thought of a Pointsettia Bowl rematch if Texas goes to the NCG and a second Big 12 team is not available.

The race for the three remaining the at-large berths

The loser of the SEC championship game will likely get an at-large berth if they don't get an automatic berth for being in the top 4.  This will eliminate all remaining SEC teams from consideration.

The Big 10 is a favorite of the bowls and Penn State and Iowa are all still very much in the running for an at-large spot.  Once one is selected the other would be eliminated from consideration.

The final BCS slot is very much up in the air.

If Georgia Tech losses the ACC championship game they would likely get a spot here. Virginia Tech is on deck for an at-large spot as well.  Miami would need some help to get in.

Oregon and Oregon State still control there own fate for a Rose Bowl berth.  Should Oregon State win the PAC 10 Oregon could still be in the picture. USC can get into the top 14 but would need a lot to happen.

The Big East runner up will likely be eligible but would not likely to be selected.

Should Texas lose to Nebraska they would be selected.  If Oklahoma State can beat Oklahoma they will be eligible as well.

Boise State or a one loss TCU would be eligible as well.  The winner of the Utah @ BYU game should become eligible as well.

An undefeated Boise State might be selected here even if other options are available.  The Fiesta Bowl would likely be making this final selection and the Big East does not travel well to the west coast.  USC fans tend to be fickle and travel less when it has been a disappointing year.  A Texas Big 12 championship and a loss by Oklahoma State would help Boise State's chances here significantly.

This would also allow two teams from non-automatic qualifying conferences to participate in the same year and mitigate against arguments about the fairness of the BCS selection process.  It would also highlight the need for at least a plus-one.

BCS Bowl projection

Why not?  Here is my best guess of what the BCS bowls.  The first thing to get clear is the at large selection order.  This year that goes Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.

NCG: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio St.
Orange: Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Iowa
Sugar: Florida vs. TCU

TCU and Iowa would most likely be selected in the opposite order, but exchanged by the clause:

After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following:

...

whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.