I have an issue with BCS busting scenarios.  Usually when people discuss this topic they try to find a way for the BCS' hand to become tied and for them to be forced into accepting participants they would rather not have.  Basically this term often is applied in the sense of busting through a glass ceiling.

The issue I have with these scenarios is that they would become the highlights the BCS would point to when showing that the BCS system works and does not need adjustment.

When I think of BCS busting scenarios I think more like gang busters or wrecking balls.  What I want to know is what scenarios would break the BCS.  A few tokens to a team here and their through the decades does not really interest me.

I will now examine three examples of each type of BCS busting scenario.

Busting the Glass Ceiling

What would it take for an institution or institutions to cross these commonly perceived walls?

Non-AQ conference member in the National Championship Game

If LSU wins the SEC, and Iowa, Texas, Cincinnati and Oregon all accumulate a loss TCU or Boise State might have a window into the National championship game this year.  This would likely place them against LSU.  Similar designs can be drawn allowing each of the top 7 as a potential partner.

Win or lose the BCS would forever be able to point to this year as proof these teams can make it to the National Championship Game.

Two non-AQ conference members in a BCS bowl in the same year

Lets face reality here first.  A BCS bowl is never going to select a MWC team or Boise State over any eligible automatic qualifying conference member.  Maybe the Fiesta Bowl would over a Big East runner up, but that is about the only case.

This scenario would require the automatic qualifying conferences getting tied up due to the restrictions on BCS at-large eligibility that a require a team to be in the top 14 and only allows two teams per conference.  Currently the SEC has a lock down on having a second teams eligible.  The Big 10 is looking strong with Penn State and Ohio State still lurking near the boarder.  USC will still be around unless they lose a third game.  The ACC has a few contenders who could sneak back into the top 15.  Too many potential eligible teams are floating around to make this likely this year.

This scenario requires two dominating conferences and is highly unlikely unless a team on NCAA postseason probation climbs into the top 14.  2008 was one Ohio State loss to anyone but Michigan State from seeing this scenario happen.

Although the reality would be that the BCS was forced to select the second team by their own rules, they would be able to claim they are not opposed to allowing a second team and have proof that it could happen.

For the record:

The BCS payout structure accounts for this possibility.  The non-automatic qualifying conferences would recieve an additional $4.5 million to split among them if they qualify a second teams, the same as any automatic qualifying conference gets for a second team.

A conference gaining an automatic qualification

In 2012 the conferences without an automatic qualification will be evaluated to see if any warrant one for the 2012 and 2013 season.  The MWC is the popular leader in this race, though the WAC is a strong contender when one runs the numbers.  If the MWC expands by including Boise State this summer I would expect that they will meet the established guidelines.

The BCS would then be able to claim to any other conference that voices their objections that a change happened then, and if they continue to perform it could happen again.

While interesting and provocative, these scenarios do nothing to end the BCS and would actually make it stronger.

Busting the BCS

Ok, if these won't bring a change, what would be required to undermine and discredit the BCS?

A split national title

The last time this happened was in 2003, resulting in the BCS adjusting its formula to give significantly more weight to the human polls.  This significantly reduces the chance of a split title.

This would require an offense so egregious that a significant number of AP voters would protest the BCS standings and select someone else as the champion.

What if Oregon and Boise State win out, Texas loses the Big 12 Championship Game and Iowa drops a game.  It is possible that Oregon would become #2 over undefeated Boise State and face the SEC champion in the NCG.  If TCU also finishes they would likely end over Boise State and be in the BCS while Boise State sits on the outside looking in.  Again.

If Oregon and Boise State then win their bowls the AP revolt could become a reality.

At the very least the Department of Justice would have strong cause to then answer Utah's Senator Hatch and Attorney General Shurtleff in their pleas to join them in an anti-trust investigation.

A BCS proponent snub

The BCS is not as united as it is typically portrayed.  The SEC and ACC were ready and willing to jump on a plus one in 2008.  They were the ones that pushed to form the BCS championship game out of the existing bowls.

Auburn getting snubbed in 2004 hardly raised a dent in this conversation because the SEC was already interested in a plus-one and does not have the votes to cause this to happen.

The most prominent BCS supporter is Big 10 commissioner James Delany.  He would take the Big 10 back to the Rose Bowl over entering a tournament.  He also vehemently opposed conference expansion, until without the athletic directors even knowing it was coming he announced the Big 10 presidents had decided to add Penn State.  He is not the final authority.

It would certainly be interesting to hear his take on an undefeated Iowa getting left out of the NCG.  If only Ohio State can get to the title game if they go undefeated, is this really in the interest of the remaining Big 10 schools?

Proof that fans will travel for a playoff

Anyone else like to tailgate?  Anyone else get depressed in April due to the lack of college football happenings?

What if we all got together and had a playoff tailgate party outside the annual BCS meeting in late April?  If 80,000 of us could get together and have a tailgate competition to see which team has the best tailgaters it could be fun and make our point.

We would have enough people to fill a BCS bowl without the advantage of having two awesome teams play each other.  80,000 people showing up the week of their meeting would be hard for the BCS to miss. 

It makes more sense to me that the idea I have read in the past of boycotting the BCS and would be much better for the economy. 

Boycotting the BCS.  That's just crazy talk.