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Non-Automatic Qualifying Conference Races

So on Sunday I broke down the automatic qualifying conference races as part of my BCS analysis.  For completeness I will now present the conference races for all remaining conferences.

None are anywhere near as tricky to discern as the PAC 10 was this week.

Star-divide

C-USA:

East:

The ECU and the UAB both control their own fate.  S. Miss and UCF are still potential candidates for the championship game.

ECU wins if:

  • They beat S. Miss and UAB
  • They beat S. Miss and UCF beats UAB
  • They beat UAB and Tulsa beats S. Miss

UAB wins if:

  • They beat ECU and
    • UAB beats UCF
    • S. Miss beats ECU and Tulsa beats S. Miss and Tulane beats UCF

S. Miss wins if:

  • They beat ECU and Tulsa and UAB beats ECU or UCF

UCF wins if:

All of the following occur:

  • They beat UAB and Tulane
  • ECU loses to S. Miss and UAB
  • Tulsa beats S. Miss

West:

SMU wins if:

  • They beat Marshall and Tulane
  • Houston loses to Memphis and Rice
  • SMU splits with Marshall and Tulane and Houston splits with Memphis and Rice

Houston wins if:

  • They beat Memphis and Rice and SMU loses to Marshall or Tulane
  • They beat Memphis or Rice and SMU loses to Marshall and Tulane

MAC:

North:

C. Michigan and N. Illinois both control their own fate.

C. Michigan wins if:

  • Beat N. Illinois
  • Beat Ball State and Ohio beats N. Illinois

N. Illinois wins if:

  • Beat C. Michigan and
    • Beat Ohio
    • Ball State beats C. Michigan

South:

Temple and Ohio control their own fate.

Temple wins if:

  • They beat Ohio
  • Beat Kent State and N. Illinois beats Ohio

Ohio wins if:

  • Beat Temple and
    • Beat N. Illinois
    • Kent State beats Temple and loses to Buffalo

Kent State wins if:

  • Beat Temple and Buffalo and Ohio beats Temple but loses to N. Illinois

MWC:

TCU wins outright if:

  • beat Wyoming and New Mexico
  • beat Wyoming or New Mexico or the Utah-BYU winner loses to SDSU or Air Force respectively.

TCU wins a share if:

  • beat Wyoming or New Mexico
  • the Utah-BYU winner loses to SDSU or Air Force respectively

BYU wins outright if:

  • Beat Air Force and Utah and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

BYU wins a share if:

  • Beat Air Force or Utah and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

Utah wins outright if:

  • Beat SDSU and BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico

Utah wins a share if:

  • Beats SDSU and BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming or New Mexico

Air Force wins a share if:

  • Beats BYU and TCU loses to Wyoming and New Mexico and Utah loses to BYU or SDSU

Sun Belt

Troy wins if:

  • Beat Florida Atlantic or LA Lafayette
  • The LA Monroe Middle Tennessee St. winner loses to LA Lafayette or Arkansas St. respectively.

LA Monroe wins if:

  • Beat Arkansa St. and LA Monroe and Troy loses to Florida Atlantic and LA Lafayette

Middle Tennessee St. wins if:

  • Beat LA Lafayette and Middle Tennessee St. and Troy loses to Florda Atlantic and LA Lafayette

WAC

Boise St. has won the WAC outright.

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments |

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Air Force can still win a share of the MWC? Wow.

Well. Theoretically, anyway.

by HawkeyedFrog on Nov 18, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions  

Completeness...

They have a better chance than USC has to get to the Rose Bowl. (Some estimates have this at a 0.001% chance).

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Nov 18, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Either Utah and BYU would also get a share if TCU loses one game and they win out.

So you can add to you scenarios:

Utah gets a share if TCU loses to UNM or Wyoming and Utah beats SDSU and BYU.
BYU gets a share if TCU loses to UNM or Wyoming and BYU beats AF and Utah.

I don’t believe head to head is considered in the MWC as a tie-breaker, so that would still be a shared title if both teams are 7-1 in conference, even though TCU crushed BYU and Utah head-to-head.

Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.

by displacedute on Nov 20, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

Those I had.

The ones I did miss were the ones where they are tied at 6-2.

If the Air Force tie occured it would be at least a three way tie with the BYU-UTAH winner, with the BYU-Utah loser making it four way if they win this week.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Nov 20, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

It's incredible that UAB even has a prayer of winning the division.

I’m not sure they’ve ever been in this position this late in the season before.

by Nico2.0 on Nov 20, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions  

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