Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
5: PAC 10
4: ACC, Big 10
3: SEC, MWC
2: Big 12, Big East
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

What this all means after the jump...

Not much stir in the top of this weeks standings, especially near the top.  Half of this weeks top 25 losses were between ranked teams and the rest were by teams out of the top 15, and USC who I have thought should have been outside the top 15. 

TCU closed to barely within the .06 cutoff I use to determine a significant gap.  Other gaps contracted or were filled with moving teams lower in the standings as well.

Race to the National Championship Game

The only change this week is that TCU passes Cincinnati due to an impressive win over Utah.  Cincinnati will have a chance to impress the voters if they can dominate Pittsburgh.   Also, with the season winding down the top three will likely start sliding down further to account for the difficulty in recovering from a loss later in the season.  TCU and Cincinnati might start getting in better position in the case where one of these teams lose.

The second batch of teams would be close enough that public sentiment at the time of the final standings would have the final say.

• Florida
• Alabama
• Texas
 
• Florida with a loss
• Alabama with a loss
• Texas with a loss
• TCU
• Cincinnati
• Georgia Tech
• Boise State

Race to the BCS Automatic Qualifications

Having established the conference tiebreakers, and with a few games left, it is now reasonable to break down the conference races in gory detail.

Clemson can win the Atlantic division with a win or a Boston College loss.  Otherwise Boston college will win the Atlantic. 

Georgia Tech has clinched the Coastal division.

Kansas State travels to Nebraska this weekend and the winner of that game will clinch the Big 12 North.  This Kansas State's final game and they played two teams from the FCS and only one can count for bowl eligibility.  Kansas State needs to win this game to be bowl eligible.

Texas can clinch the Big 12 South with a win or an Oklahoma State loss.  Otherwise Oklahoma State will win the Big 12 South.

Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh on December the 5th for a game that will determine the Big East's BCS automatic qualification.

Ohio State will be in the Rose Bowl representing the Big 10 this year.

Arizona travels to Oregon this week for the lead spot for the PAC 10's Rose Bowl spot.  If either team wins out they will win the PAC 10's Rose Bowl berth.

If Oregon wins and loses to Oregon State:
- If Oregon State beats WSU, then Oregon State wins.
- If WSU beats Oregon State and Stanford beats California then Stanford wins.
- If WSU beats Oregon State and California beats Stanford then Oregon wins.

If Arizona wins and loses to ASU or USC and Oregon beats Oregon State:
- If Stanford beats California or then Stanford wins.
- If California beats Stanford then Oregon wins.

If Arizona wins and loses to ASU or USC and Oregon State beats Oregon:
- If Oregon State beats WSU then Oregon State wins.
- If WSU beats Oregon State and Stanford beats California then Stanford wins.
- If WSU beats Oregon State and California beats Stanford:
-.- If Arizona beats ASU but loses to USC, USC beats UCLA and California beats Washington, then USC wins.
-.- If Arizona beats ASU but loses to USC and UCLA beats USC or Washington beats California, then Arizona wins.
-.- If Arizona beats USC but loses to ASU then Arizona wins.
-.- If Arizona loses to both ASU and USC then Oregon State wins.

It is possible for California to get a share of the PAC 10 title but they can not win the tiebreaker in any case.

Florida will play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

The race for the top non-automatic qualifying team

TCU has taken a commanding lead for that spot reserved for those without a conference automatic qualification Boise State is next in line if they lose.  A Boise State loss would clinch a BCS berth for TCU, unless they lose to both Wyoming and New Mexico.

Guarantee clause for #3 and #4 Spots

It is likely the loser of the SEC championship game will gain an automatic qualification in this manner.

If Cincinnati loses and both TCU and Boise State win out, the loser of the SEC championship game could possibly fall to #5 and put TCU and Boise State at #3 and #4.  A Georgia Tech loss might be needed as well.  As it is currently worded, only teams from conferences with an automatic qualification would qualify for this exception.  I frankly don't think this case was seriously entertained prior to my post last week and suspect that this rule may be clarified after the First Selection Teleconference on November 24th.

Either way, if this event happens and both don't get an invite things might get heated for the BCS folks.  They might choose to avoid this and select the second as an at-large.  Rumors of the Fiesta Bowl entertaining the thought of a Pointsettia Bowl rematch if Texas goes to the NCG and a second Big 12 team is not available.

The race for the three remaining the at-large berths

The loser of the SEC championship game will likely get an at-large berth if they don't get an automatic berth for being in the top 4.  This will eliminate all remaining SEC teams from consideration.

The Big 10 is a favorite of the bowls and Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin are all still very much in the running for an at-large spot.  At least one should finish in the top 14 and once one is selected the rest would be eliminated from consideration.

The final BCS slot is very much up in the air.

If Georgia Tech losses the ACC championship game they would likely get a spot here. Virginia Tech is on deck for an at-large spot as well.  Miami would need some serious help to get in.

Oregon and Arizona still control there own fate for a Rose Bowl berth.  Should Arizona win the PAC 10, Oregon could hang around with a win over Oregon State. If Stanford can handle California that should qualify them as a second eligible PAC 10 team.  Oregon State can become a contender if they take down Oregon.  USC can get into the top 14 but would need a lot to happen.

The Big East runner up will likely be eligible, but would not likely be selected.

If Oklahoma State can beat both Colorado (expected) and Oklahoma (less expected) they would be eligible as well.

Boise State or a one loss TCU would be eligible as well.  The eventual winner of the Utah @ BYU game should become eligible as well.

An undefeated Boise State might be selected here even if other options are available.  The Fiesta Bowl would likely be making this final selection and the Big East does not travel well to the west coast.  USC fans tend to be fickle and travel less when it has been a disappointing year.  Boise State would be an excellent sell nationally, especially if the Fiesta Bowl can market a battle of undefeated teams in TCU vs. Boise State. A loss by Oklahoma State would help Boise State's chances here significantly.

This would also allow two teams from non-automatic qualifying conferences to participate in the same year and mitigate against arguments about the fairness of the BCS selection process.  It would also highlight the need for at least a plus-one.

For a bowl originally formed to allow the WAC champion to have a guaranteed bowl, a battle of the MWC vs. WAC champions would run deep into the Fiesta Bowl's roots.