BCS Projection and Sunday Poll Release Open Thread
by utesfan100 on Nov 15, 2009 12:24 AM EST
in BCS Analysis
9 comments
Well, the top 8 teams took hare of business. TCU looks solid and Ohio State clinched a Rose Bowl Berth.
Miami, Houston and Arizona failed to win against unranked opponents. USC gave Stanford a boost and are virtually eliminated from the PAC 10 championship race. Might be completely eliminated, I will look at that latter this week.
How the standings should shake out after the jump. Or look at BCS GURU for a better opinion.
1) Florida Gators. No change in the top 3
3) Texas Longhorns.
4) TCU Horned Frogs. With a quality win over a solid Utah team TCU should add some needed space between themselves and Cincinnati. The lead of Texas over them might be cut slightly, but no where near enough to suggest they could pass them.
5) Cincinnati Bearcats. A win over top 25 West Virginia should improve them in the computers and they might gain some space relative to Boise State
7) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
8) Ohio St. Buckeyes. A win over Iowa and losses ahead of them combine to push Ohio State up the standings.
9) LSU Tigers.
10) Pittsburgh Panthers.
11) Oregon Ducks. If they don't finish with a win from a 31-7 win at the half they would drop out of the top 15 and the Wisconsin Badgers would slid into the #15 spot.
12) Iowa Hawkeyes.
14) Oklahoma St. Cowboys.
15) USC Trojans.
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Not sure how far Pitt was behond LSU last week, but with a win over Notre Dame and LSU’s struggle with Louisiana Tech, they may slide ahead of LSU for this week.
Not that it really matters since LSU can’t get a BCS bid unless Florida/Alabama absolutely choke down the stretch.
There is much that can go silly with a BCS projection.
What makes BCS Guru better than me is that he actually projects each component and I model the average alone.
Pittsburgh has West Virginia and Cincinnati ahead. If they win those they will pass LSU and win the Big East and a guaranteed BCS berth.
Currently I am thinking that if Cincinnati wins that game and Oklahoma can upset Oklahoma State the chances of Boise State getting an at-large bid are very large.
I am thinking:
NCG: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Arizona vs. Ohio State
Orange: Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Sugar: Florida vs. Penn State
Fiesta: TCU vs. Boise State
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
I dont see the fiesta taking Boise and TCU...what a yawner and repeat of last year.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
"Somebody will always break your records. It is how you live that counts." - Earl Campbell
by Mulliganville on Nov 15, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
I bet Iowa gets chosen before Penn St. And in your scenario, GA Tech most likely replaces Boise St as an at large with only 2 losses.
But with the choices being Orange, Fiesta, Sugar this year (after Sugar and Fiesta replace Alabama and Texas), I suspect it goes like this:
NCG: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Arizona/Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: GA Tech/Clemson vs at Large 1
Sugar: SEC replacement (1st choice) vs. at Large 3
Fiesta: Texas replacement (2nd choice) vs at Large 2
Cincinnati and TCU are guaranteed spots as at larges.
SEC replacement – Florida (easiest pick)
Texas replacement – Iowa or Penn St
at Large 1 (Orange) – Cincinnati/Pitt
at Large 2 (Fiesta) – Pitt/Okla St
at Large 3 (Sugar) – TCU
If Clemson takes ACC automatic bid, GA Texh replaces Pitt/Okla St above.
Just my best guesses. I suspect Boise St only gets picked if all 2nd place teams from BCS conferences have 3 losses. They will take 2 loss teams over them for $$ purposes.
sorry the trojans are going to be farther down than that
they would not match up tcu and boise again b/c it would be a pr nightmare with the media asking how come the so called big boys are avoiding tcu or boise state. they would look like cowards. the ncaa is stupid but they are not dumb.
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 15, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions
Don't blame the NCAA
they have nothing to do with this. For all intents and purposes, the bowl games are really unsanctioned games. If the NCAA did control it, there would be a playoff.
Bowl games do need to be NCAA approved
The NCAA has the authority to end the bowls, but also the responsibility to respect those who participate in each sport.
The fact is that until those who run the BCS, the eleven conference commissioners, decide they want a playoff it isn’t going to happen. When these eleven people reach a point where a playoff is a viable option they will be the most qualified people to run one.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Also...
I’m not really sure the BCS cares if they look like cowards. All that matters is the money. The money will still be there, PR fiasco or not. The question will be can they avoid Congressional attention. If TCU/Boise still get big time BCS money, then there really isn’t any reason for Congress to get involved.
The 5 non-aq conferences would get:
$9 million for the first team and $4.5 million for the second team over the $9 million they get anyways.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
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