The Notre Dame-Pittsburgh game will eliminate one of those two anyways. Stanford Notre Dame could be interesting. Notre Dame could have a loss. If Cincinnati or West Virginia take care of Pittsburgh the Big East is taken care of.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State the Big 12 should be out of the running for a second team. This gets doubled if Texas inexplicably loses one as well.

If Miami loses another game the ACC is out of the race for a second team as well, and South Florida will be ready to give them a battle. Virginia Tech could make a run but they should also have handled North Carolina.

None of these scenarios is certainty and it is almost imposible to eliminate the remaining three conferences from the top 14. The SEC is almost impossible to eliminate.

In the Big 10 the most likely route would be for Penn State to lose to Ohio State who then losses to Iowa. Even then Penn State might be hanging around very close to #14.

It is highly unlikely that Oregon will miss out on the Rose Bowl. We would need to see Arizona win vs. USC and California and lose to Oregon for the PAC 10 not to have a second team. USC could still be lurking around #14 in this case.

For Boise State to get an at-large bid after TCU earns a BCS spot would require at most two of the above scenarios not working out, with the SEC already counted as one.

While Boise St may end up ranked high enough to qualify for a BCS bowl (behind TCU), it almost a certainty that they will not got an invite. This is not to say they are undeserving (although the SOS discussion could be had), but there is such a little chance the BCS (and its bowls) give out a second large paycheck to a non-BCS conference.

This is why Ohio St got their bid last year over Boise St, and this is why Ohio St/Penn St/USC/BCS #2 team will get a second bid over the WAC champion. It sucks, but it is the economics of it as well. Not to mention, that the BCS bowl would much rather have the alumni/students from a Ohio St/Penn St/USC/BCS #2 over Boise St. It is just logistics and money.

They could take Penn State or Ohio State first, if they did not want to maintain their old Big East roots by taking the Big East champion Cincinnati or Pittsburgh.

If they take Penn State or Ohio State their would be no more at large spots for Boise State to fill.

If the rankings hold true and Texas plays Alabama/Florida in Title game (with SEC champ the #1 seed), then the picks actually go like this:

1 – Sugar
2 – Fiesta
3 – Orange
4 – Fiesta
5 – Sugar

So for arguments sake (not predicting just assuming), let’s assume that conf champs are:

Big East – Cincy, ACC – GA Tech 12-1, Big 10 – Iowa 12-0, Big 12 – Texas 13-0, Pac10 – Oregon 11-1, SEC – Fla/Bama (winner 13-0, loser 12-1)

The matchups then look like this:

Rose – Iowa vs Oregon
Fiesta – Pick 2 vs Pick 4
Orange – GA Tech vs Pick 3
Sugar – Pick 1 vs Pick 5
NCG – Texas vs Fla/Bama

It almost a given, Sugar takes Fla/Bama loser with Pick 1. That leaves four picks from Cincinnati, TCU, Boise St, Penn St, USC, Pitt, Utah, Houston (assuming all have 2 losses or less and LSU cant qualify as being 3rd SEC team). My guess is Fiesta takes Penn St/USC with Pick 2. Pick 3 would most likely be Penn St/USC. Pick 4 would be Cincinnati, leaving Pick 5 for TCU. If Notre Dame wins out, they will be in Top 14 and sneak the a choice from USC/Penn St.

So it looks like

Rose – Iowa vs Oregon
Fiesta – USC vs Cincinnati
Orange – GA Tech vs Penn St
Sugar – Fla/Bama vs TCU
NCG – Texas vs Fla/Bama

I have a hard time believing Boise St, Utah, Houston would sniff a second BCS berth, even if all the BCS teams have 3 losses, because the BCS bowls are only obligated to give one spot away to a non-BCS school. The bowls do not have to take the next highest ranked school, they will take whoever they feel will fill more seats.

Also, if any upsets occur in the ACC or Big12 CG, you better believe Texas and GA Tech will automatically move up as choices in the at-large process.

So then we would have:

Rose – Iowa vs Oregon
Fiesta – Big12 North (Kansas St) vs GA Tech
Orange – ACC Champ (Clemson) vs Texas
Sugar – Fla/Bama vs TCU
NCG – Cincinnati vs Fla/Bama (I would suspect the Oregon/Iowa/Cincinnati choices would move around quite a bit depending on who is #2)

Not saying this is how they should do it, but it is what they will do.