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BCS Standings: October 23rd

Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference, independents (ind), and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Rank Team BCS Average
BCS Top 25 Teams Remaining Notes
1 Florida .9726 South Carolina SEC #1
2 Alabama .9450 LSU
3 Texas .8927 Oklahoma State Big 12 #1
4 Iowa .8249 Ohio State Big Ten #1
5 USC .7944 Oregon, Arizona PAC 10 #1
6 TCU .7890 Utah MWC #1, non-AQ #1
7 Boise State .7752 None WAC #1, non-AQ
8 Cincinnati .7735 Pittsburgh, West Virginia Big East #1
9 LSU .7030 Alabama, Mississippi
10 Oregon .6456 USC, Arizona
11 Georgia Tech .5895 None ACC #1
12 Penn State .5851 Ohio State
13 Virginia Tech .4921 None
14 Oklahoma State .4494 Texas
--- BCS Eligibility Line ---
15 Pittsburgh .3415 Cincinnati, West Virginia, Notre Dame
16 Utah .3161 TCU non-AQ
17 Ohio State .3147 Iowa. Penn State
18 Houston .3085 None C-USA #1, non-AQ
19 Miami (FL) .2491 None
20 Arizona .2241 USC, Oregon, California
21 West Virginia .1959 Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
22 South Carolina .1891 Florida
23 Notre Dame .1197 Pittsburgh Ind
24 California .0916 Arizona
25 Mississippi .0907 LSU

 

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
5: SEC
4: PAC 10
3: Big 10, Big East, ACC
2: Big 12, MWC
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

What this all means after the jump...

Star-divide

The gaps in the standings are significant because they establish lines where teams are not likely to cross without a loss or a top 25 win.  Essentially the gaps separate the field into groups and teams rarely move from one group to another.

My estimated NCG lineups have changed slightly:

  • Texas
  • Florida
  • Alabama
  • USC
  • Texas, with a loss and Big 12 championship game participation
  • Florida, with a loss and SEC championship game participation
  • Alabama, with a loss and SEC championship game participation
  • Iowa
  • TCU
  • LSU, SEC champion
  • Texas, with a loss to Big 12 South champion Oklahoma State
  • Cincinnati
  • Alabama, with a loss to SEC West champion LSU
  • Boise State

Oregon appears to have proved me wrong by joining LSU.  Either Oregon will lose or they will seperate from the teams behind them.  If they win against USC and Arizona and Boise State remains unbeaten it will be interesting to see if they would pass Boise State.

Next week I will start tracking the BCS conference races.

TCU has taken the lead for that spot reserved for those without a conference automatic qualification and will keep that lead unless they lose.  Boise State is next in line.  Utah can settle it on the field against TCU but would need a Boise State loss.  Houston would need a Boise State loss and a loss by the eventual winner of the TCU-Utah game to be guaranteed a spot.  Even then, they might not be ahead of TCU.

All teams in the top 25 should expect that winning their games is all they need to become eligible for a BCS berth.  Of particular interest is Notre Dame, who would likely be selected over just about anyone regardless of rank.

Some interesting rules come into play if the top 14 become constrained due to the provision that a conference may not qualify a third team as an at-large selection.  This is unlikely, but the increase of SEC and PAC 10 teams offers some hope.  Parity in the ACC could help to clear them out of their top spots as well.

The MWC lost a team in the BCS top 25 this week, but BYU is not far down in the ORV's columns.  The only way the MWC appears to end the season with three ranked teams is if Utah upsets TCU and BYU then upsets Utah.

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Comments

Display:

I love Boise State, but TCU should be ranked higher than them.

FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!

by 49er16 on Oct 26, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Well, in the BCS they are.

and I don’t see that changing unless TCU loses a game.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Oct 26, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

I still think TCU loses to Utah.

FIRE BRUCE BOCHY NOW!!!!!!
AND TAKE BRIAN SABEAN WITH HIM!!!!!

by 49er16 on Oct 26, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not certain Boiuse State will go undefeated.

Picking the team that will beat them is not so easy.

I will save my opinions about the Utah-TCU game for Block U ; )

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Oct 26, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

nevada has a better chance of beating boise than utah has vs tcu

i still think both will go undefeated. boise state was fourth in the first bcs rankings. they fell to seventh. usc could lose to oregon, iowa is going to lose to ohio state. i would love it if okie state beat texas. tcu wins this week they would pass at least usc. i would be curious how much texas would fall. my guess is not much. what i’m leading up to is tcu might be able to get to number three in bcs standings before the sec cg and big 12 cg. okie state could not possibly rise past tcu even if the beat texas according to the numbers i see. oregon might pass tcu but they are going to lose to somebody else in the pac-ten. cincy will definitely lose to either uconn,wvu or pitt. i’m sure you see where i’m getting at. i just hope utah is around 12th in bcs rankings when tcu plays them

by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 26, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Texas losing would drop them somewhere between LSU and Penn State

They would pass TCU if they won out after the Big 12 championship game. If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma Stateand all three take no other losses, Texas would win the tie-breaker they lost last year.

I am fairly certain TCU needs all but one of the following:
- One USC loss (most likely to Oregon)
- One lowa loss (most likely Ohio State
- Oklahoma State as Big 12 champion
- LSU as SEC champion, with Florida losing one before the SEC championship game.

Whichever on does not happen determines who they would play.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Oct 26, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

usc has a very slim need on tcu. the computers love tcu at #4

it’s the biased media kepping usc at # 5. i think i want oregon to beat usc by 14 points. then usc is out of it completely. oregon could rise above tcu. boise state temporarily would pass them. it would be the week when utah is at least 14th and maybe better that we retake our rightful place in the bcs at #4. by then iowa would have lost to osu. and oregon i believe will lose to someone left on their schedule. they play all teams with winning records left.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 27, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

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