BCS Standings Preview and Poll Release Sunday Morning Open Thread.
by utesfan100 on Oct 24, 2009 11:53 PM EDT
in BCS Analysis
8 comments
Here are my projected BCS standings top 15: BCS GURU will have a likely better estimate, judging by my doubting of his placement of Florida above Alabama last week.
1) Florida
2) Alabama
3) Texas
4) Boise State
5) USC
6) TCU
7) Iowa
8) Cincinnati
9) LSU
10) Oregon
11) GA Tech
12) Penn State
13) Oklahoma State
14) Miami
15) Houston
No change is likely in the top 3.
Iowa and Cincinnati were virtually tied last week. Michigan State is doing better in the computers than Louisville which should push Iowa over Cincinnati this week.
Oregon State should help USC in the polls and they already have credibility in the polls. This is what moves them up the standings, as they are not far behind Iowa and Cincinnati anyways.
TCU secured the only win over a ranked team this week. This should push them up above Iowa and Cincinnati. I didn't have the audacity to put then #5.
Regardless of the final order, these four teams will not be far behind Boise State and extremely close numerically. As long as these teams continue to win they will be dancing in the BCS standings for the rest of the season.
LSU looks to have some solid separation above and below them. One could say they are a class unto themselves.
There is nothing to suggest the next group will shift, the main question is how far will Miami fall. Currently there is a very large gap between Oklahoma State and Houston pre-made to insert a team.
All in all this looks to be a very uneventful week in the BCS standings,even if this is not the case for the BCS itself.
It will be interesting to see if Playoff PAC and their political allies have a round two in store for the release of the second BCS standings, or if they have played all their cards at once.
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Well then ... Utah needs to improve in the polls to pass Houston.
Frankly the polls look only at the box scores. Utah went to overtime against Air Force while Houston dominated SMU like they were supposed to. If anything, a pollster that had then neck and neck would slide Houston slightly ahead based on this weeks games.
I could be wrong, but that is what I think. I would love to see Utah #1, but that ain’t gonna happen.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
utah is #16 boise state is 7th and tcu is 6th. how usc is 5th and iowa is fourth is anyone's guess
my favorite friend jim delaney must have made alot of calls today. the bcs rankings did come out late. iowa resume includes 1 point win over northern iowa at home. had to hold onto a 3 point win over arkansas state. they beat a 40th-45th ranked michigan state team on the last play of the game. new mexico could get there only win of the season if they had arkansas state at home.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 25, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Iowa surprised me, but not the Guru.
he is scary good (actually he estimates the values of each component using the formula, where I just kinda slide them around a bit)
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Computers don't use MOV
And Iowa’s SOS is miles ahead of any of the other unbeatens at this point, so they’re an easy #1 in the computers (except Billingsley, whose rankings are essentially a codification of what the idiot human voters do). Even when you factor in margin, the SOS is so good that I’d be surprised to see them lower than #3 in any rational system – it’s not like any of the other unbeatens has been pounding all comers into a bloody pulp either. USC #5 is an absurdity that you can blame on those idiot human voters (the computers aren’t big fans, with the highest machine vote at #7 and all but one computer putting Oregon ahead).
Not sure the MOV argument stands.
Sagarin’s predictor, which is very MOV heavy, has Iowa #12.
If offense and defense are examined seperately Iowa drops to #21.
At Massey’s College Football Ranking Comparison 126 ranking systeam are averaged and Iowa has the fifth highest mean, at 6.60. The best predictor, as measured by actually indicating the winners of games ahead of time, is Dunkle, which has Iowa #4.
The reason Iowa is #1 in 5 of the 6 BCS computers is because they ignore MOV.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
It matters not now
To me whats so interesting or irrelavent depending on which side of the fence ur on, is the fact that one SEC team is already in the championship, and if a playoff existed there would likely be two! Lets see, we have an LSU team with one loss to 1 Florida and they r about to play 2 bama nov 7. That strength of schedule alone would jump Boise, TCU, Cincy, and a one loss USC team. On top of that u have the SEC championship which will most surely push whoever is left standing into the nat. champ with one loss or not. Its a shame again we have no playoff. The argument that chaps me more than any other is one of money. The amount of money that a playoff format would bring could rival the Superbowl. Just think of the TV contract March Maddness gets for BB. A football playoff with 8 diff teams would have entire nation tuned in from day one with all coasts having a vested interest in outcome of games! Just Think about it
You may be right
If LSU wins the SEC it will get very interesting, especially if Florida loses a game before then (this gets doubled if that game is to FSU.)
The Oregon and Oklahoma State bandwagons are looking nice too.
Have you examined my concept? I would love some opinions on it.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
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