Gaps in the standings indicate standings differences more than 0.06 in the standings.

Notes are made for the highest ranked teams from each conference and all non-automatic qualifying conference members. (non-AQ)

Team must be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at-large bid.

Number of top 25 teams per conference:
4: SEC, Big 10
3: Big 12, Big East, PAC 10, MWC, ACC
1: WAC, C-USA
0: MAC, Sun Belt

What this all means after the jump...

The gaps in the standings are significant because they establish lines where teams are not likely to cross without a loss or a top 25 win.  Essentially the gaps separate the field into groups and teams rarely move from one group to another.

Two general rules of thumb I have observed are that a win over a top 25 team is typically worth about 0.1 and a loss costs about 0.2.  It is too early to bring out better methods, as too much can happen to stir things up.  Losses by teams in the top group sometimes are less, as the polling process abbreviates large leads away from the pack that might be present.  Currently the gaps that are present are likely indicative of the actual spacing at the top. Playing in a conference championship game would also give a team another win over a top 25 team. This gives the following National Championship Game lineup (grouping indicates dense regions in the model):

• Texas
• Florida
  
• Alabama

• Cincinnati
• Texas, with a loss and Big 12 championship game participation
• Florida, with a loss and SEC championship game participation
• USC
• Alabama, with a loss and SEC championship game participation

• TCU
• LSU, SEC champion
• Texas, with a loss to Big 12 South champion Oklahoma State
  
• Iowa
  
• Alabama, with a loss to SEC West champion LSU
  

• Boise State

The gap between LSU and Miami(FL) appears to be insurmountable. 

It should be noted that the grouping of the top three and between TCU and Alabama with a loss is very dense and subject to fluctuations in the rankings. 

Boise State will likely get passed by TCU if both win out.  A one loss Boise State would be in striking distance for BYU or Utah to pass them if either wins their remaining games.  Houston may slide into the top 14 needed for at-large consideration but can't catch Boise State or TCU, even if they both lose a game.

All other ranked teams, except maybe Wisconsin, should expect to have a reasonable chance at gaining BCS at-large eligibility if they win their remaining games, as typical attrition rates should clear out teams ahead of them and a few good wins should allow them to avoid being passed by a significant number of teams.

Some interesting rules come into play if the top 14 become constrained due to the provision that a conference may not qualify a third team as an at-large selection.  If the ACC can maintain their three spots in the top 14 and the SEC, MWC or C-USA can get a couple more teams in the top 14 these might come into play.  This could force a second team from a conference without an automatic qualification to be selected for a BCS bowl.

With three teams in the initial BCS top 25 and one in the top 10 the MWC appears to be building on its 2008 resume for an automatic qualification in 2012 and 2013.  Sitting at #4, Boise State is building their resume for inclusion in the MWC.